Thursday, August 27, 2015

Above the crowd

I have a real fascination with huge field MTTs. Without exception, the largest ones are no limit hold'em. Only a super popular poker flavor could attract such huge numbers of players. At first I thought a field of over 200 was big, but that's puppy food :-) The largest field of any MTT I've played was a whopping 1,200 players. I actually made the money in that one, coming in 79th.

If I get knocked out of an MTT before the late registration period has ended, which is rare, I consider that MTT as unavailable for any statistic involving field size. One such statistic which I've started to keep my eye on is percentile. In the 1,200 player tournament mentioned above, I fell into the 93rd percentile; that is, I outperformed 93 percent of my opponents. Defining a huge field as 750 players or more, that was my highest huge field MTT percentile until last night. In my final MTT, I came in 51st out of 891 players, which falls in the 94th percentile.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    27    42        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9     2   796        0
MTT   NLHE     4500   500       6    11    83        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    68    51     3688


delta: $-8,312
MTT NLHE balance: $-30,084
balance: $7,423,960

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Another stop-time failure

Last night, I played my first MTTs in over two weeks. I find I really enjoy them. They're a mellower tournament experience than sit and gos, since the buy ins are generally much lower. I love the feeling of outlasting so many other players (which doesn't always happen, of course). Unfortunately, I had another stop-time failure in the second MTT I played. As a refresher, stop-time in poker is when a tournament reaches the money bubble. In this case, 42 players would be paid, and there were 43 players left. I was one of the two shortest stacks. I'd already been folding with regularity for some time when my final hand came up. I'd been dealt A8o (ace eight offsuit), and figured it was good enough to shove with. Unfortunately, my one caller had been dealt a big slick, and it held up. If I'd simply folded, I might have been able to make the money. My problem was that I was sick of folding :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    72    31        0
MTT   NLHE     4500   500       6    53    43        0


delta: $-10,000
MTT NLHE balance: $-26,772
balance: $7,432,272

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

A million dollar mistake

One major difference between cash games and tournaments is that in tournaments, there's no visible relationship between chips and money. Tournaments with vastly different buy ins can, and often do, have the same number of starting chips. This difference means it's possible to be make a huge mistake when selecting a tournament, and not realize it until it's much too late. That happened to me on February 13th, 2014, when I mistakenly registered for a tournament with a buy in of $450,000, thinking I was registering for one with a $45,000 buy in. As a matter of fact, I made that mistake twice in a row before discovering my error. Very luckily for me, I made the money in both tournaments. Last night, I wasn't so lucky. Through some strange fluke, thinking I was registering for a tournament with a $22,500 buy in, I actually registered for one with a $900,000 buy in, plus a $100,000 entry fee. I came in fourth, and just like that, my bankroll had shed a million play dollars. That dwarfs the most money I'd previously lost playing a single sit and go, which was a mere $201,500. Last night's $1,030,500 loss is also a career worst, topping the $1,024,500 I lost on July 21st, 2012. All I can say is "Ouch" :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    22500   2500       6    52     2    47250
SNG   NLHE    45000   5000       6    23     5        0
SNG   NLHE    22500   2500       6    29     5        0
SNG   NLHE   900000 100000       6    29     4        0
SNG   NLHE    22500   2500       6   103     2    47250


delta: $-1,030,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $223,200
balance: $7,442,272

Monday, August 24, 2015

Bad turn betting

I've talked before about bad river betting, and about good turn betting; however, I haven't talked very much about bad turn betting. I'd remedy that in this post, since I made a really bad turn bet in the second sit and go I played last night. While the vast majority of bad river bets are too large, it seems clear that the majority of bad turn bets are too small. If you believe you have the best hand at the moment, but the turn card puts some kind of draw out there, you must protect your hand by making a big enough bet to price out an opponent who's on a draw. I didn't do that, and paid the price. I flopped a set of fours, but the turn card put two spades out there. I needed to protect my set by overbetting the pot, but I didn't. A third spade on the river sealed my doom. I compounded my error by making a bad river call. I would have been much better served getting those chips in on the street before. Live and learn! On the positive side, I came out with a profit on the night.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 22500  2500       6    20     4        0
 22500  2500       6     3     6        0
 22500  2500       6    69     1    87750
 22500  2500       6    73     1    87750
 22500  2500       6    16     4        0


delta: $50,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,253,700
balance: $8,472,772

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Doppelsession

Last night's session was a doppelsession; the results were almost identical to those of the night before. In terms of money places, the results were identical - no firsts, and one second, in six sit and gos played. If I keep duplicating this dubious "feat", my bankroll will hit 0 in 82 more sessions :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    47     4        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    59     2    47250
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    30     6        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    32     5        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    52     3        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    47     3        0


delta: $-102,750
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,203,200
balance: $8,422,272

Saturday, August 22, 2015

$48,285,080

The title of this post is the amount of play money I've wagered so far in my career on sit and go no limit hold'em. That includes the $150,000 I wagered last night, trying a buy in level I'd tried only once before, the $22,500 buy in level. Thinking over all the poker styles and flavors, I have to say that sit and go no limit hold'em is my favorite combination. It gives me the best admixture of challenge, excitement, and enjoyment. Accordingly, that's the combination I'll play for the foreseeable future, my stack and its golden ratios and blue distances be damned.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    66     2    47250
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    33     5        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    36     5        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    42     3        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6     7     5        0
SNG   NLHE    22500  2500       6    64     4        0


delta: $-102,750
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,305,950
balance: $8,525,022

Friday, August 21, 2015

No safe harbor

This year, I've been in poker freefall. There's no safe harbor for me right now. No poker flavor I try has been able to turn around my fortunes. I need to batten down the hatches and ride out this horrible slump somehow. How's that for a collection of mixed metaphors? :-)

Let me try to quantify just how bad this year has been. I never had a loss in any year prior to this one, and right now I'm at a loss of $994,558 for 2015. There's not much chance I can end this year in the black, but I'll do my level best. My overall blue distance is now at an all-time high of $1,877,607. It feels inevitable that it'll hit $2,000,000 before it turns around. My cash game no limit hold'em blue distance is now at an all-time high of $966,852. It feels inevitable that it'll hit $1,000,000 before it turns around. Here's the breakdown by style and flavor of how I've fared this year:

    sum  count          avg    style       flavor
=======  =====  ===========  =========   ================
 132300    184     719.0217  Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em
  38020     60     633.6667  MTT         8-Game
   2600      1    2600.0000  Sit & Go    HORSE
 -13372     18    -742.8889  MTT         No Limit Hold'em
 -64160     25   -2566.4000  MTT         HORSE
-536690     35  -15334.0000  Sit & Go    8-Game
-553256     37  -14952.8649  Cash game   No Limit Hold'em


I can't seem to stick to any resolution I make. Maybe I should stop making them :-) Looking at the style and flavor numbers, sit and go no limit hold'em is looking mighty tempting right about now. It's one of the few bright spots of the year.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 47 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 8 times while in big blind (62%)
 - 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
 - 18 out of 32 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 26 out of 47 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 7 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,258,675
balance: $8,627,772