Friday, January 19, 2018

Icarus splash

My October 20, 2011 post entitled "Dolphin leap" commenced thus:

In keeping with my recent use of aquatic metaphor, I ended last night's session with a dolphin leap. That is, I was underwater for most of the session, but managed to leap out of the water and into the sunlight at the end.

In this post I'll describe the opposite of a dolphin leap; I call it an Icarus splash. An Icarus splash is when you've been above water the whole tournament, but exit in a New York minute on the final hand. Last night, I suffered an Icarus splash; I made a flush but lost to a full house. I had the suspicion it was the only MTT-R NLHE Icarus splash I'd ever suffered, but I was wrong; I've actually had six of them in my career.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      70   15    51        0


?delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,776,500
2018 balance: $1,053,000
balance: $46,566,260

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Three stable numbers

I've now played over 300 MTT-R NLHE tournaments, which is a good sample size. As it turns out, there are three numbers I care about which have been remarkably stable for a long time. They are:

1. percentile
2. making the money percentage
3. making the final table percentage

As I've noted more than once, my percentile is stable at 65. My making the money percentage is stable at 35. Finally, my making the final table percentage is stable at 20. Long may these numbers wave :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      78   18    11   365000


delta: $265,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,876,500
2018 balance: $1,153,000
balance: $46,666,260

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Valiant comeback

I really love it when I get to play heads up in a tournament. So far in MTT-R NLHEs, that's happened to me eight times, including last night's session. When heads up play started, I had 99,960 chips to my opponent's 413,040, so he had more than a 4 to 1 chip advantage. I hunkered down, and eventually took over the chip lead. I came so close to winning. On hand 185, I had my opponent all in and was a 68.18% favorite after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be. Still, I made over 2 million in profit on the night and got my overall balance back into the blue. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   197      61   15     2  2432000


delta: $2,332,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,611,500
2018 balance: $888,000
balance: $46,401,260

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

40 outs

I don't often indulge in bad beat sob stories, so you should humor me on the rare occasions when I do (such as now). Let me start with a definition. An out in poker is any card which will win the hand for you. Where the rubber generally meets the road in poker is on the river. When you're up against a single opponent, and are waiting for the river card to peel off the deck, there are 44 different cards it could be, since you and your opponent each have 2 cards, 4 community cards have already been dealt, and there are 52 cards in the deck. Last night, on the final hand of the first tournament I played, I had 40 outs after the turn. There were only 4 cards which I had to fade. In other words, I was a 10 to 1 favorite. You already know what the outcome was; my opponent spiked one of those 4 cards, and I was out. What made it even more painful was that I was close to the money, and would almost assuredly have made it there had I won that hand.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      53   12    15        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      58   12    29        0 


delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,279,500
2018 balance: $-1,444,000
balance: $44,069,260

Monday, January 15, 2018

When less is more

Last night, I had another losing session. Despite that fact, I actually lowered my extrapolated loss for the year. How was that possible? For the simple reason that I didn't play the night before last, so last night's loss was spread out over two days. The average loss over those two days turned out to be less than my average loss over the first twelve days of the year. If I stopped playing for the rest of the year, my extrapolated loss would drop like a stone every day :-) Of course, that would also guarantee a loss on the year, and that's something I could never stomach. Knock on wood, I haven't had an unprofitable year since I started playing online poker over nine years ago.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   101      66   15    13   263000


delta: $-137,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,579,500
2018 balance: $-1,144,000
balance: $44,369,260

Sunday, January 14, 2018

In-session rebound

On Friday night, I had a big in-session rebound; I lost $400,000 on the first tournament, and won $467,000 on the second. My current 2018 balance is $-1,007,000. If I keep up this pace, I'll lose over 30 million play dollars this year. Luckily, that isn't very likely :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      74   15    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      56   12     8   567000


delta: $67,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,716,500
2018 balance: $-1,007,000
balance: $44,506,260

Friday, January 12, 2018

Consolations

I played one tournament last night, and narrowly missed making the money. On my final hand, I was a 66.73% favorite before the flop, an 83.54% favorite after the flop, and an 84.09% favorite after the turn. However, it wasn't meant to be; my opponent hit a 7 outer on the river, and I was gone. I came away with three consolations:

1. I had fun
2. I played well
3. I lasted longer than most of the usual suspects

They were sufficient compensation :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      68   15    19        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,649,500
2018 balance: $-1,074,000
balance: $44,439,260