Monday, October 20, 2014

One Hand to rule them all

On Friday night, one hand stood head and shoulders above the rest. I won a pot worth $46,638 with it, $25,694 of which was o.p.m. (other people's money). In came early on, on hand 4. I won more money on that one hand than I did on all my other winning hands combined. I probably should have quit right afterwards, but wanted to get my entertainment's worth out of the session. One interesting feature about hand 4 was that I won it without a showdown; I bet $5,372 on the flop, an opponent raised to $18,694, I reraised all in to $50,867, and the raiser folded. Out of curiosity, I just ran the numbers to see where that hand ranks in my all time list of winning no showdown hands; it clocked in at number 17.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 51 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 11 times while in big blind (36%)
 - 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
 - 12 out of 30 times in other positions (40%)
 - a total of 24 out of 51 (47%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 3 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $6,798
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,741,247
balance: $9,646,346

Friday, October 17, 2014

11th worst four bagger

I just spent a lot of time trying to put lipstick on a pig. While examining Wednesday night's session, I tried and tried again to find some statistical bright spot, but the data just wasn't there. I could have saved myself a lot of effort if I'd just started out with a different goal - namely, to measure how poor my results have been lately. The last four sessions comprise the 11th worst cash game no limit hold'em four bagger of my career; here are the top 12:

$-419,220 2013-06-11 2013-06-14 (0)
$-372,519 2013-06-10 2013-06-13 (1)
$-290,268 2014-08-30 2014-09-03 (0)
$-271,871 2014-08-29 2014-09-02 (0)
$-266,691 2013-06-12 2013-06-15 (1)
$-256,150 2011-12-30 2012-01-04 (0)
$-243,006 2014-08-31 2014-09-04 (1)
$-240,000 2012-01-18 2012-01-23 (0)
$-226,940 2014-05-12 2014-05-15 (1)
$-225,669 2014-06-06 2014-06-10 (0)
$-222,665 2014-10-10 2014-10-15 (1)
$-214,500 2011-06-14 2011-06-21 (1)


2014 is over-represented here; that's a good indication that this has been a substandard poker year for me. I'm not worried, though; I've weathered worse slumps than this.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 125 hands and saw flop:
 - 18 out of 20 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 10 out of 19 times while in small blind (52%)
 - 48 out of 86 times in other positions (55%)
 - a total of 76 out of 125 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 16 (43%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-75,422
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,734,449
balance: $9,639,548

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

It was the best of sessions, it was the worst of sessions

If you're a Charles Dickens fan, as I am, you'll surely recognize that the title of this post is a snowclone of the opening of "A Tale of Two Cities". Last night, I hit the felt twice, losing $100,000 in the process. That ties for my ninth worst cash game no limit hold'em session ever, covering the worst of sessions part of the title admirably. What about the best of sessions part? If two hands where I was the favorite had gone my way, I would have ended the night $162,032 richer, which would have been my fourth best cash game no limit hold'em session ever. So I can't feel bad about the session at all :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 47 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 6 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 19 out of 36 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 28 out of 47 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 8 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,809,871
balance: $9,714,970

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Folding machine

I've noted this paradox before - the way to get rich in poker is to fold nearly every hand before you get to showdown. You basically need to become a folding machine :-) Looking at the numbers from last night's session, I thought I was folding at a high percentage, but it turned out not to be as high as I thought. I folded 115 times in 147 hands, for a decent 78.32 folding percentage, but it was a far cry from my personal best folding percentage of 94.74 (18 of 19 hands), set on March 15th, 2012. In fact, last night's 78.32 was only my 311th highest folding percentage, in 685 sessions of cash game no limit hold'em.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 147 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 25 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 14 out of 25 times while in small blind (56%)
 - 41 out of 97 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 70 out of 147 (47%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 15 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 17

delta: $2,757
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,909,871
balance: $9,814,970

Monday, October 13, 2014

All flavors bankroll distance

The key feature of the total chip distance poker statistic I came up with recently is that it unites wins and losses, instead of setting them against each other. The point is not that you won or lost, but that the size of your stack changed; every change contributes to the total. Total chip distance only makes sense for cash games; in tournaments, changes in stack size have little bearing on the outcome, and don't reflect actual play dollar amounts. After some thought, I came up with a way to combine cash game numbers with tournament numbers; I'm calling this new statistic the all flavors bankroll distance. It's not a chip distance; it's the total distance your bankroll has traveled, taking all flavors of poker into account. The only thing that matters in tournaments is how much money you won or lost as a result of playing them; therefore, the correct contribution of each tournament to the all flavors bankroll distance is the absolute value of the tournament delta. Here is my all flavors bankroll distance as of the end of Friday night's session:

 $94,534,475   cash game total chip distance
 $46,685,760   sum of the absolute values of the tournament deltas
============
$141,220,235   all flavors bankroll distance

On the final hand of the night, I had pocket tens and was an 86.36% favorite to win after the turn; however, my opponent had a big slick and paired his king on the river. The $17,218 I lost on the hand, causing me to hit the felt, was my biggest loss of the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 75 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 39 out of 56 times in other positions (69%)
 - a total of 52 out of 75 (69%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 11 (27%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,907,114
balance: $9,812,213

Friday, October 10, 2014

Ending with a big bang

A while ago, I came up with a criterion for determining whether a session ended with a bang - it's when the final positive hand delta of the night comes from one of the high chaparral hands. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, I was inspired to come up with a criterion for determining whether a session ended with a big bang - it's when the final positive hand delta of the night is also the largest positive hand delta. That was the case last night. I got curious, so I ran some numbers on sessions, winning sessions, ending with a bang winning sessions, and ending with a big bang winning sessions. The results are gratifying, and also show some nice symmetry. In each case when moving from a less restrictive set to its nearest more restrictive set, the more restrictive set is over half the size of the less restrictive:

683  cash game no limit hold'em sessions
463  winning cash game no limit hold'em sessions
298  ending with a bang winning cash game no limit hold'em sessions
197  ending with a big bang winning cash game no limit hold'em sessions

Taking the ratio of the most restrictive to the least restrictive, nearly 29% of all the cash game no limit hold'em sessions I play are winning ones ending with a big bang.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 52 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 7 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 20 out of 37 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 32 out of 52 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $55,324
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,957,114
balance: $9,862,213

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Seventh best straight

Last night, on the final hand of the session, I had my seventh best straight ever. Here are the top 10:

    $115,642 2014-07-04 hand  31
    $102,548 2014-05-10 hand 122
     $81,300 2012-12-22 hand  23
     $78,550 2012-03-21 hand  91
     $73,985 2014-06-25 hand  39
     $72,500 2012-05-09 hand   7
     $65,575 2014-10-08 hand  54
     $63,451 2013-05-08 hand   2
     $60,581 2014-05-19 hand  54
     $57,250 2014-06-17 hand   1


The thing about straights, as I've said before, is that there are too many hands that can beat them. I felt like I had the stone cold nuts on the turn, but actually I was only a 77.27% favorite. That was due to the fact that my opponent had flopped a set. Of the 44 possible river cards, 9 of them gave him a full house and one of them gave him a four of a kind. I knew for sure I had the stone cold nuts on the river, since no flushes, full houses, or four of a kinds were possible at that point. Accordingly, I went all in, and was lucky enough to get a call.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 54 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 19 out of 40 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 29 out of 54 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 12 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $47,228
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,901,790
balance: $9,806,889