Epic humbling

Friends and neighbors, last night I set another record. It wasn't the kind anyone likes to set. I lost the most chips I've ever lost in a single session - $120,000 worth. A truly epic humbling. I've done some post mortem analysis, and the best spin I can put on the session was that I really should have lost "only" $70,000. In other words, if I remove the two hands which took me to the felt the first two times (and which I played egregiously badly), I'm left with 208 hands which I played badly. By the way, the 210 hands set a new record for length of session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 210 hands and saw flop:
- 29 out of 33 times while in big blind (87%)
- 23 out of 34 times while in small blind (67%)
- 98 out of 143 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 150 out of 210 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 33 (39%)
Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $-120,000
balance: $3,326,119

Faster

Last night, I set the following all-time personal bests:

fastest $700,000: 22 sessions, December 2, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($700,413)
fastest $800,000: 28 sessions, November 24, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($818,734)
fastest $1,000,000: 38 sessions, November 11, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($1,019,277)
fastest $2,000,000: 169 sessions, May 6, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($2,014,127)
fastest $3,000,000: 394 sessions, April 26, 2010 - December 29, 2011 ($3,000,577)

On the penultimate hand of the night, I won a pot worth $82,800 with a full house, eights full of aces.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 8 times while in big blind (50%)
- 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
- 30 out of 44 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 38 out of 58 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $58,350
balance: $3,446,119

Heartbreak flush

Last night, I had my lengthiest poker session ever - 201 hands. As you might suspect, it wasn't a winning session. However, I played quite well. I was essentially done in by a single hand - hand 167. Had I won it, as I had every reason to expect, I would have raked in a pot worth $68,728. In all probability, I would have ended my night immediately afterwards; that would have given me a nice profit of slightly over $36,000. Instead, I lost $32,764. I only avoided hitting the felt because of the happy accident that the opponent who won the pot had started the hand with $7,548 less chips than I had. Here's what went down:

Table 'Anchises VIII' 9-max (Play Money) Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: (35500 in chips)
Seat 2: (63700 in chips)
Seat 3: neostreet (40312 in chips)
Seat 4: (15100 in chips)
Seat 5: (33000 in chips)
Seat 6: (32764 in chips)
Seat 7: (40000 in chips)
Seat 9: (18400 in chips)
Seat 5: posts small blind 100
Seat 6: posts big blind 200
Seat 7: posts big blind 200
Seat 1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [8s Ks]
Seat 7: checks
Seat 9: folds
Seat 1: checks
Seat 2: folds
neostreet: calls 200
Seat 4: calls 200
Seat 5: calls 100
Seat 6: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s Qs 3s]
Seat 5: checks
Seat 6: checks
Seat 7: checks
Seat 1: checks
neostreet: bets 2400
Seat 4: calls 2400
Seat 5: folds
Seat 6: calls 2400
Seat 7: folds
Seat 1: folds
*** TURN *** [5s Qs 3s] [Jc]
Seat 6: checks
neostreet: bets 37712 and is all-in
Seat 4: folds
Seat 6: calls 30164 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (7548) returned to neostreet
*** RIVER *** [5s Qs 3s Jc] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 6: shows [As 2s] (a flush, Ace high)
neostreet: shows [8s Ks] (a flush, King high)
Seat 6 collected 68728 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 68728 | Rake 0
Board [5s Qs 3s Jc Qc]
Seat 1: Seat 1 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Seat 2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: neostreet showed [8s Ks] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 4: Seat 4 (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Seat 5 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Seat 6 (big blind) showed [As 2s] and won (68728) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: Seat 7 folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Seat 9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This was the most heartbreaking flush I've ever lost. The only concern I had was that someone had the ace of spades and a non-spade, and that a fourth community spade might show up on the turn or the river. I never for a millisecond considered the possibility of someone having the ace of spades and a second spade. The odds were just so long against it. I ran my "percent at flop" calculator on my hand combined with that flop and discovered it beat 96.51% of all other possible hands. I just happened to run into one of the 3.49% of hands that could beat mine.

I'm proud that I didn't go on tilt, and that I kept battling. I realize that if you play long enough, these heartbreak hands will happen to you every so often. I said it once before, but it bears repeating - one of the most important lessons poker teaches you is that the improbable happens. That's actually very good news!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 201 hands and saw flop:
- 28 out of 32 times while in big blind (87%)
- 26 out of 32 times while in small blind (81%)
- 100 out of 137 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 154 out of 201 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 17 of 31 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 16

delta: $-24,512
balance: $3,387,769

Six jacks

Last night, I won $72,200 with six jacks. On hand 29, I was dealt Jc 8h and hit trip jacks on the turn. One opponent bet $9,700, and I raised it to $19,400. No one called, and I won a pot worth $30,400 without a showdown. On hand 33, I was dealt Jh Ah, hit trip jacks on the flop, and went all in. No one called, and I won a pot worth $41,800 without a showdown.

Along the way, I lowered my fastest three million from 396 sessions to 395, and my fastest million from 43 sessions to 42.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 37 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 6 times while in big blind (16%)
- 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
- 12 out of 25 times in other positions (48%)
- a total of 15 out of 37 (40%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $52,400
balance: $3,412,281

Mr. Fastest

On Friday night, I set a bunch of all-time personal records:

fastest $500,000: 14 sessions, December 8, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($515,744)
fastest $600,000: 18 sessions, December 3, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($603,894)
fastest $700,000: 25 sessions, November 24, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($732,496)
fastest $900,000: 35 sessions, November 11, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($933,039)
fastest $3,000,000: 396 sessions, April 19, 2010 - December 23, 2011 ($3,002,739)

Just call me Mr. Fastest! In my last 14 sessions, I'm averaging $36,839 per session. If I could keep up that pace over the course of a 210 session year, I'd end up with a gaudy $7.7 million, over double my current target of $3 million per year.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 45 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 3 out of 6 times while in small blind (50%)
- 19 out of 33 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 26 out of 45 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $43,366
balance: $3,359,881

yaps: twind

Last night's session inspired me to come up with yet another poker statistic. I'm calling this one twind; it stands for total winning delta. It's the sum of the deltas from the winning hands of the session. I'm not sure how useful it is, but since it's easy to calculate, I'm going to keep an eye on it for a while. I guess if you have a huge twind, it means you were doing something right, even if you ended up hitting the felt. My twind last night was $130,300; my agoal was 10.88. Both very healthy numbers!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
- 39 out of 62 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 54 out of 87 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 15 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $70,300
balance: $3,316,515

192: 87, 81, 27, 0

The numbers in the title of this post all refer to the last hand I played last night - hand 192. This was the longest no limit hold'em session I've ever played, and the second longest session I've ever played. As you may have guessed, I hit the felt on the hand. At the start of the hand, my stack was $13,950. I was dealt pocket rockets (a pair of aces), and went all in with them on the flop. I got one caller. He'd paired his king on the flop, and paired his jack on the turn. His two pair held up and my night was over. Before the flop, I was an 87% favorite to win the hand. After the flop, I was an 81% favorite to win the hand. After the turn, I was a 27% underdog. After the river, I had no chance of winning. That's life in the poker world!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 192 hands and saw flop:
- 26 out of 33 times while in big blind (78%)
- 20 out of 33 times while in small blind (60%)
- 86 out of 126 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 132 out of 192 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 12 of 33 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 16

delta: $-40,000
balance: $3,246,215

My slowest half million

Since I like to be fair and balanced in my reporting, I feel it my duty to inform you of how many sessions it took me to earn my slowest half million. The answer isn't pretty - 223. That's fully 38% of the 582 sessions I've currently played. The good news is that I've really picked up the pace since then. In fact, thanks to last night's session, I actually bettered my record for fastest half million - it dropped from 16 sessions to 15.

Early on last night, I was the beneficiary of a real risk-taker. He'd just won a small pot by going all in, and thought that had worked so well he'd try it again right away. Mistake! I'd been dealt a pair of queens, and called him; I was the only caller. He only had a ten jack offsuit, and hit the felt.

On my penultimate hand of the night, I flopped a set a set of sevens, kept betting it big, and eventually scared everyone away. I won a pot worth $38,000 without a showdown, and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 65 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
- 10 out of 11 times while in small blind (90%)
- 29 out of 45 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 48 out of 65 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 13 (53%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $41,408
balance: $3,286,215

My fastest half million

Last night, I set another personal speed record - my fastest ever half million, in 16 sessions. If I can keep up that blistering pace, I'll shatter my fastest million record. In other statistical news, I'm getting close to achieving the platinum ratio in no limit hold'em. For those new to this blog, the platinum ratio is 3 times as many winning sessions as losing sessions.

The bulk of my profit last night came on a single hand. I flopped a straight, and got into a raising war with one opponent until I was all in. This player went all in with only a pair of tens. His hand improved on the river to two pair, queens and tens, but it was too little, too late. I won a pot worth $73,700 to more than double up.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 21 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
- 4 out of 4 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 13 times in other positions (84%)
- a total of 18 out of 21 (85%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $37,900
balance: $3,244,807

Six queens

Last night, I lost twice with six queens. You may be wondering how I could lose even once with six queens, given that a poker hand only has five cards. Of course, I didn't have all six queens in one hand; I had three queens in two separate hands. I got much too frisky in each case, and deservedly hit the felt both times.

first three queens (hand 3): I was dealt Tc Qc, and the flop came Qs 4d 8d. An opponent bet $5,200, I raised to $10,400, he reraised to go all in, and I called. He turned over Ah Ad, and I knew I was a big underdog. I thought I'd pulled off an upset when the turn card was a queen, but the river did me in; another ace gave my opponent a full house and the $83,000 pot.

second three queens (hand 11): I was dealt 8c Qs, the flop came Qh Jh Qc, and the turn card was the ten of hearts. The same opponent who'd beaten me on hand 3 went all in at this point, and amazingly enough everyone still in the hand, including me, called. There's no way I should have called with a flush draw on the board like that. The player who'd gone all in had made a king high flush on the turn, and ended up winning a pot worth $168,500.

In a mere 11 hands, I'd lost $80,000. However, I realized there were worse hands than three queens to go bust on, and was encouraged that the table had a lot of action. I didn't tighten up; I kept gambling, and had some luck go my way. When I was able to get my stack back into the black, I called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 36 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 5 times while in big blind (40%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 20 out of 26 times in other positions (76%)
- a total of 26 out of 36 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $4,850
balance: $3,206,907

My slowest million

One of the great lessons poker teaches you is that you're just not as good as you think you are. In short, poker teaches you humility. I felt proud of myself when I discovered that my fastest play million was made in just 43 sessions, but to round out the picture, I realized I needed to find out how slowly I'd made my slowest play million. The ugly truth: 403 sessions. Almost 10 times longer than my fastest play million! That 403 represents a whopping 69.6% of the total number of sessions I've played.

The thing is, though, no matter how slowly you make a profit, you're making a profit! I have to confess I'm not feeling humble at all right now. I'm feeling like I have this no limit hold'em game pegged! I know I'm due for a humbling, but I don't think it's coming any time soon, so I brashly say to the poker gods, "Bring it on!"

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 4 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 1 out of 3 times in other positions (33%)
- a total of 1 out of 4 (25%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,600
balance: $3,202,057

My fastest million

Now that I've made multiple millions, I got curious to know what's the fastest I've ever made at least a millon, in terms of number of sessions. It turns out to be 43 sessions - last night's, and the 42 preceding it. Last night, the night after my greatest eight, I made my finest nine. Here are my top 10 nines:

370,270 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 2011 Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 2011
358,081 Fri Apr 29 01:00:00 2011 Tue May 10 01:00:00 2011
334,382 Fri Oct 14 01:00:00 2011 Mon Oct 24 01:00:00 2011
330,351 Fri May 06 01:00:00 2011 Thu May 19 01:00:00 2011
314,482 Wed Apr 27 01:00:00 2011 Fri May 06 01:00:00 2011
311,820 Sun Aug 14 01:00:00 2011 Fri Aug 26 01:00:00 2011
298,720 Sat Dec 03 00:00:00 2011 Tue Dec 13 00:00:00 2011
295,656 Tue Apr 12 01:00:00 2011 Fri Apr 22 01:00:00 2011
293,376 Fri Apr 08 01:00:00 2011 Tue Apr 19 01:00:00 2011
292,965 Mon Aug 15 01:00:00 2011 Sat Aug 27 01:00:00 2011

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 15 times while in big blind (66%)
- 12 out of 15 times while in small blind (80%)
- 39 out of 56 times in other positions (69%)
- a total of 61 out of 86 (70%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 20 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $45,300
balance: $3,161,457

Greatest eight

As you know, I'm a poker statistics nut. I especially enjoy figuring out if I've set a new personal record :-) I have an early warning system that tends to goes off when I'm close. It's not scientific; it's a gut feeling. The buzzer went off the night before last, and got fulfilled last night. I achieved my "greatest eight". That is, the sum of my deltas for the last eight sessions is the most I've ever achieved in a set of eight contiguous sessions. Here are my top ten eights:

324,970 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 2011 Wed Dec 14 00:00:00 2011
321,676 Mon Apr 11 01:00:00 2011 Wed Apr 20 01:00:00 2011
312,320 Sun Aug 14 01:00:00 2011 Thu Aug 25 01:00:00 2011
308,518 Sat Jul 10 01:00:00 2010 Tue Jul 20 01:00:00 2010
292,100 Mon Aug 15 01:00:00 2011 Fri Aug 26 01:00:00 2011
280,432 Thu Oct 20 01:00:00 2011 Fri Oct 28 01:00:00 2011
278,532 Sat Oct 15 01:00:00 2011 Mon Oct 24 01:00:00 2011
277,481 Fri Apr 29 01:00:00 2011 Mon May 09 01:00:00 2011
272,776 Fri Apr 08 01:00:00 2011 Sat Apr 16 01:00:00 2011
269,515 Tue Aug 16 01:00:00 2011 Sat Aug 27 01:00:00 2011

As all but one of them occurred in 2011, there's no doubt that I'm having a banner year.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 6 times while in big blind (100%)
- 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
- 21 out of 34 times in other positions (61%)
- a total of 34 out of 49 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $61,450
balance: $3,116,157

Dream flop

Play poker long enough, and you're going to see some memorable flops. I still remember the straight flush I flopped the night I hit $1,000,000 in play money for the first time. I also remember that the very next hand, I flopped a full house. I remember describing those back-to-back flops as Lady Luck taking my head in both of her hands, drawing me towards her, and kissing me full on the lips.

Last night, I didn't see a flop as good as either of those, but still saw what qualifies as a dream flop. I was dealt 4d 6h, and the flop came 5d 8s 7h, giving me a straight. What made this flop a dream flop was that it was a rainbow one - no suit was repeated, sharply reducing the likelihood of any opponent hitting a flush on the river. I slow played the hand, then bet $10,000 on the river. One opponent raised to go all in, another called, and I called. My straight won a pot worth $49,300, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 9 times while in big blind (55%)
- 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
- 22 out of 49 times in other positions (44%)
- a total of 34 out of 67 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $32,800
balance: $3,054,707

The beauty of checking

Last night, I passed the $3,000,000 play money mark. I achieved it on the penultimate hand, where I ended up going all in and doubling up. I was dealt pocket queens, and hit trips on the flop. I simply checked; checking can be a beautiful thing when you have such a strong hand. An opponent bet $2,800, and I raised to $5,600. He reraised to $10,200; I reraised to $14,800. I was prepared just to keep reraising until I was all in, but he only called my reraise. An ace came on the turn, I went all in, and he called. The river was a two. My set of queens beat his two pair of aces and kings to win a pot worth $80,402.

Today is December 13th, 2011. By December 13th, 2012, I aim to have grown my stack to $6,000,000 play dollars.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 47 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 23 out of 36 times in other positions (63%)
- a total of 31 out of 47 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $40,202
balance: $3,021,907

My next target

On Saturday night, I came close to hitting the $3,000,000 play money mark. When I was approaching $1,000,000, I decided to switch to Omaha once I hit it. When I was approaching $2,000,000, I decided to switch to deuce to the seven triple draw lowball (aka deuce) once I hit it. Now that I'm approaching $3,000,000, I've decided that I'll keep playing no limit Hold'Em, but will set a super aggressive target for the coming year. My goal is to win an additional $3,000,000 in the calendar year following the day I hit $3,000,000.

I know this is doable, because I've kept track of my average session delta per poker flavor and initial stake; here they are, in descending order:

poker_flavor_descr initial_stake_max count(*) sum(s.delta) / count(*)
No Limit Hold'em 40000 114 14975.6842
Pot Limit Hold'em 40000 252 4225.1310
Pot Limit Hold'em 2000 126 852.4921
Pot Limit Omaha 2000 36 614.3889
Limit 7 Card Stud 2000 10 460.6000
No Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball 2000 30 311.3667
Pot Limit Omaha NULL 1 -370.0000
Limit 5 Card Draw 2000 1 -500.0000
Limit 7 Card Stud 8000 3 -535.6667
Limit 7 Card Stud 20000 1 -20000.0000

Rounding up my average per session no limit hold'em delta to $15,000, it should take me 3,000,000 / 15,000 = 200 sessions to amass 3,000,000 play dollars. In 2010, my first full year of keeping poker statistics, I played 208 sessions. So far this year, I've played 238 sessions. So it's safe to say I'll play at least 200 sessions in the next calendar year. Looking over these numbers, what really prevented me from growing my balance as fast as I could was trying out the non Hold'em poker variants.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 77 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 5 out of 11 times while in small blind (45%)
- 34 out of 54 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 47 out of 77 (61%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 17 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $60,768
balance: $2,981,705

Baiting a straight

Last night, I won a huge pot when I baited a straight. When you have a big hand, it really pays to slow play it. I'd been dealt a pair of fours, and made a set on the flop. I didn't bet the flop or the turn, just calling. The river card was an ace which paired another ace on the board to give me a full house, fours full of aces. At that point the pot was at $6,000 and I bet the pot (shades of my pot limit days). An opponent who'd flopped a straight and had been slow playing himself raised me to $20,000. I went all in, and he called. I won a pot worth $83,200 and my opponent hit the felt.

I made another odd crossing, and am now in striking distance of $3,000,000.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 51 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
- 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
- 19 out of 35 times in other positions (54%)
- a total of 29 out of 51 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $59,000
balance: $2,920,937

Reupping

When I first set myself the goal of earning a million play dollars playing Texas Hold'Em, I decided to be very conservative about certain things. I decided to build up a set of rules and stick by them. The very first rule I made was to quit playing for the night if I ever hit the felt. This rule served me well, but eventually I grew dissatisfied with it.

After experiencing some huge swings at the $100/$200 tables, another rule I made was to stick to the $5/$10 tables, and build up my stack slowly but surely. At one point I calculated how long it would take me to reach my million by playing safely in this fashion; I think it came out to about 5 years!

I ended up breaking both of these rules on the same night. Why did I do this? For one thing, I was chafing under the restrictions; I felt stifled and wasn't having a lot of fun playing. It felt too much like work! For another, I was starting to hit a dry spell; I was coming across some really good poker players at the low stakes tables, and realized that at my current rate, I'd still be shy of my goal in 5 years. That was unacceptable to me.

As soon as I went back to the $100/$200 tables, my luck changed and my balance took off. I really believe the quality of play was better at the lower stakes tables, so I was doubly better off at the higher stakes tables - not only did I have a better chance to win, but when I did win I'd be winning 20 times more chips.

For the longest time, I avoided no limit. I admit that the thought of it terrified me. I got very good at pot limit, and thought that was all I needed to play. I don't remember my reason for deciding to try no limit, but when I did, my balance again took off like a rocket. These days, I'd never dream of playing at a low stakes table, and I don't see myself switching back to pot limit in the near future (if ever).

I realize I've rambled on a bit. What does the title of the post signify? The decision to keep playing after hitting the felt. This decision shouldn't be made lightly. Here are my rules for reupping:

1. never reup when you're on tilt (this one is very hard to obey, since being on tilt makes you disobey rules :-)

2. never reup if you're playing badly

3. definitely reup if you're playing well

Last night, I hit the felt on hand 41, but was playing well. I'd had some bad beats, but wasn't on tilt. I reupped for the max, won some big pots, and came out with a nice profit on the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 62 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 11 times while in big blind (81%)
- 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
- 18 out of 41 times in other positions (43%)
- a total of 35 out of 62 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $17,800
balance: $2,861,937

Listening to the board

Sometimes, listening to the board (i.e., the community cards) can be as important as listening to your opponents. Sometimes, the board will tell you that you have the best hand. Actually, it's never the board alone; it's the board, in combination with all your past experience, which talks to you.

Last night, on the penultimate hand, I was dealt a big slick. The flop came 7c Jh 2h. The turn was the ace of diamonds; I bet $25,200, since the board told me I had the best hand. I got one caller. The river was the two of clubs, and I bet another $8,400. My opponent raised another $2,200 to go all in, and I called. My two pair of aces and deuces beat her two pair of aces and deuces, since I had the better kicker (hers was a queen).

As predicted, last night's session was a lot easier than the one before it; I hope tonight's is as easy!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 27 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
- 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
- 9 out of 18 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 14 out of 27 (51%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $50,800
balance: $2,844,137

Underwater record

Last night, I'm sure I set a personal record for number of hands underwater in a session in which I ended up making a profit. Of the 168 hands I played, I was underwater at the start of 156 of them. I nearly set a record for pots won in a session, with 39; I checked the archives and last October I had a session in which I won 44 pots.

I'm proud that I ground my way back into the black, even though it took so long to do it. The biggest reason my stack was on life support was the severe hit it took on hand 20; I lost $26,600 when my king high straight lost to an ace high straight.

I have a hunch tonight will be a much easier session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 168 hands and saw flop:
- 27 out of 32 times while in big blind (84%)
- 22 out of 32 times while in small blind (68%)
- 72 out of 104 times in other positions (69%)
- a total of 121 out of 168 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 21 of 30 (70%)
Pots won without showdown - 18

delta: $2,150
balance: $2,793,337

Swallowed up

Last night, it wasn't a question of if I was going to lose, it was how much. Those nights happen, and you have to learn to live with them. If I'd admitted to myself in time that my goal should have been to minimize my losses rather than trying to fight back to the black, I might have been able to escape with losing half my starting stack. That didn't happen, and I hit the felt on the 58th hand.

Hand 21 really did me in; I lost more chips playing it than I gained from the 7 hands I won. So you could say all my winnings were swallowed up by a single hand. I'd been dealt a pair of eights, and convinced myself that a third one was coming my way. It never did, and I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt a pair of kings. The pot was worth $36,600; I lost $14,300 on the hand.

That was my only really poorly played hand of the night. The next highest amount I lost on a hand was $2,800. When I got down into Lazarus territory, I ran into some bad luck and that was all she wrote. As you may know, I'm not down about the loss. I'm raring to go again!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 11 times while in big blind (72%)
- 8 out of 13 times while in small blind (61%)
- 29 out of 34 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 45 out of 58 (77%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 10 (30%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-40,000
balance: $2,791,187

A new zip code

On Saturday night, I had enough luck and skill to put my balance into a new zip code. I crossed the $2,800,000 boundary for the first time. It's now a semi-realistic goal to try to hit $3,000,000 in play money before the end of the year.

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, one hand sticks out like a sore thumb. On that one, I won a pot worth $72,700 with two pair, queens and eights. Given that there was an ace in the flop, I probably should have folded when one of my opponents went all in on the river, but I didn't. What can I say? An old cliche applies here: sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 56 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 11 times while in big blind (72%)
- 5 out of 11 times while in small blind (45%)
- 27 out of 34 times in other positions (79%)
- a total of 40 out of 56 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $75,200
balance: $2,831,187

The Icarus syndrome

Icarus was the mythological boy who escaped with his father Daedalus from the island of Crete by flying away with wings made of wax and feathers, designed by his father. Daedalus had warned Icarus not to fly too close to the sun, but in the intoxication of the moment, Icarus forgot the warning. The heat of the sun melted the wax, and he plummeted to his death in the sea below, thereafter known as the Sea of Icarus.

In last night's session, I got caught up in the intoxication of the moment also. I'd more than tripled my starting stack amount, and wanted to get to an even $100,000 in profit before I quit for the night. I had a great chance to do it, too, but got beaten by an underdog hand. The night went south from that point. Fortunately for me, my fate did not completely parallel Icararus's; though I lost a huge amount of chips, I still was able to quit with a small profit.

Including the loss I just mentioned, I suffered three bad beats on my way down:

bad beat #1 (hand 117): I was dealt a pair of aces, and went all in preflop against a ten queen offsuit. The ten queen hit a straight on the river; I lost a pot worth $75,199. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $169,182, and I would have quit the next hand. My hand was an 84.3% favorite before the flop.

bad beat #2 (hand 140): I was dealt 9h Th, and hit a flush on the river. An opponent hit a better flush (also on the river) to win a pot worth $32,200. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $109,681, and I would very likely have quit the next hand. I'm categorizing this as a bad beat not because I was ever ahead in the hand, but because getting torpedoed by an uberflush leaves you with the exact same feeling as a bad beat does.

bad beat #3 (hand 145): I was dealt a 7 8 offsuit, and hit a straight on the turn. An opponent hit a full house on the river to win a pot worth $62,300. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $108,581, and I would very likely have quit the next hand. My hand was a 90.91% favorite after the turn.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 160 hands and saw flop:
- 23 out of 26 times while in big blind (88%)
- 17 out of 27 times while in small blind (62%)
- 70 out of 107 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 110 out of 160 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 19 of 34 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $10,281
balance: $2,755,987

Pad percentage

One type of hand I've been forgetting to consider in my recent spate of poker statistics is the revenue-neutral one. This is when you're not the big or small blind (and therefore have no forced bet), and fold before the flop without betting. These types of hands can extend your session, so they can be thought of as session padding. You don't want to have no padding, but you also don't want to have too much of it. At a 7 player table, every player has 5 possible revenue-neutral hands every 7 hands, which is 71.4%. Clearly, you don't want your pad percentage to go anywhere near that high. However, it behooves you to adjust your pad percentage based on the style of play of your opponents. If you're at a table with players who like to go all in before the flop, prudent play dictates that you'll have a higher pad percentage than you normally would.

Last night, I had a pad percentage of 11.5, and an agoal of 4.1.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 17 out of 18 times while in big blind (94%)
- 16 out of 19 times while in small blind (84%)
- 34 out of 50 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 67 out of 87 (77%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 12 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $8,750
balance: $2,745,706

Silver lining

Last night, I hit the felt on the 52nd hand. I then reupped for the max, and played 70 more hands. I didn't get out from under, but did reduce my losses a little bit. For large portions of the night I was card dead. The silver lining I take from the night is that when I order the deltas of the hands by absolute value, the top two deltas are wins. That's a good sign. Five of the top ten absolute value deltas are wins, in fact; that proves I wasn't getting creamed.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 122 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 16 times while in big blind (75%)
- 11 out of 17 times while in small blind (64%)
- 60 out of 89 times in other positions (67%)
- a total of 83 out of 122 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 22 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: -28,100
balance: $2,736,956