Saturday, March 31, 2012

The streak is dead. Long live the streak!

Last night, the longest winning streak of my career came to an end. At 29 straight winning sessions, it was longer than my previous two longest streaks put together. It was so long, it started when I was still looking for a new job, was going strong when I received a job offer, and almost made it to the first day of my new job, which will be this coming Monday.

Call me egotistical, but at some point during the streak I started thinking to myself, "This must be how Joe Dimaggio felt when he was on his 56-game hitting streak." I felt like I could do no wrong, and that the streak would last forever.

When I first heard the phase "The king is dead. Long live the king!" it made no sense to me. How can the king live a single day, let alone a long time, when he's dead? Of course, the answer is that the phrase refers to two different kings. So you'll understand that when I say "The streak is dead. Long live the streak!" I'm referring to two different streaks. I'm hoping to start a new winning streak tonight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 159 hands and saw flop:
- 18 out of 27 times while in big blind (66%)
- 19 out of 27 times while in small blind (70%)
- 63 out of 105 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 100 out of 159 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 22 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 19

delta: $-19,200
balance: $4,013,586

Friday, March 30, 2012

1-2-3

Last night, I had almost the shortest session one can have:

hand 1: I folded before the flop
hand 2: I doubled up when I flopped trip 6s
hand 3: I folded before the flop, and quit for the night

As easy as 1-2-3!

Friends and neighbors, I've now surpassed the four million mark. Not only that, within the last calendar year, I've amassed over three million play dollars. So the audacious goal I set myself when I hit the three million mark has now been realized, if we just backdate it :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 3 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 0 times while in big blind (0%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 1 out of 3 times in other positions (33%)
- a total of 1 out of 3 (33%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $41,426
balance: $4,032,786

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Top pair triumph

On Tuesday night, I hit the felt on hand 31. I wasn't playing especially well, but wasn't playing especially badly either. Not surprisingly, I reupped for the max. Thirty hands later, I got almost all the way back to even when my top pair triumphed. I'd been dealt Kh 8d, and the flop came 8s 3s 5d. On the turn, which was the seven of clubs, an opponent bet enough to put me all in; I called. He was on a spade flush draw, but didn't make it; the river card was the seven of diamonds. Another opponent had already gone all in before the turn. My two pair, eights and sevens won a pot worth $77,644.

On hand 82, my ace high straight won a pot worth $57,600, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 83 hands and saw flop:
- 11 out of 13 times while in big blind (84%)
- 9 out of 14 times while in small blind (64%)
- 27 out of 56 times in other positions (48%)
- a total of 47 out of 83 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 13 (23%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $32,044
balance: $3,991,360

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Happenstance, coincidence, and donkey action

I've been a James Bond fan from a young age. I enjoyed reading the books as much as watching the movies. A memorable quotation from "Goldfinger" inspired the title of this post:

Goldfinger said, 'Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time it's enemy action."'

Last night, I determined that one of my opponents was a real donkey. He kept going all in preflop. A couple of times, I got to see his hole cards, and he had rags both times. I'd been folding like a good boy every time he went all in, but I couldn't resist calling him when my hole cards were a suited ace jack. His hole cards were 7 6 offsuit. He hit a pair of sevens on the flop, but I hit a pair of aces on the turn. My aces held up, and I won a pot worth $80,600.

Going all in once is happenstance. Going all in twice is coincidence. Going all in a third time is donkey action!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 51 hands and saw flop:
- 7 out of 8 times while in big blind (87%)
- 3 out of 6 times while in small blind (50%)
- 19 out of 37 times in other positions (51%)
- a total of 29 out of 51 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $59,127
balance: $3,959,316

Monday, March 26, 2012

Mac and cheese session

Mac and cheese is one of the great comfort dishes, and is a good metaphor for a very comfortable poker session. Last night, I won the first hand I played; that created the possibility of being above water all night. I had a hunch I'd never be underwater, and wasn't.

I'm trying to figure out what I'm doing so right lately. The nearest I can figure it, my showdown percentage is going up due to the fact that my seeing the flop percentage is going down. My seeing the flop percentage is going down because I've turned into a more selective player.

Another thing I'm perfecting is knowing when to quit. In the past, I'd get greedy and try to win more chips when I'd already made a sizable profit; as you might expect, that behavior usually backfired. Now, I almost disappoint myself sometimes when I call it a night, but know from experience that I'm doing the right thing.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 23 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 9 out of 17 times in other positions (52%)
- a total of 13 out of 23 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 5 (80%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $38,600
balance: $3,900,189

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Felt in eight, fatty late

Last night, I hit the felt in a mere eight hands. I was playing with a little more friskiness than usual, but on all 3 of the big hits my stack took, I had strong hands. Sometimes, that's just the way the cookie crumbles. I reupped for the max, and prepared for a long road back to the black. One interesting feature of the session after I reupped was that I was playing heads up or three handed for large stretches of it; that doesn't happen too often. I was dialed in, and won more than my fair share of the pots. I did get back into the black, eventually. When I won a pot worth $29,950 with a fatty (my slang for a full house) of kings full of sixes, I knew it was time to quit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 22 out of 28 times while in big blind (78%)
- 23 out of 25 times while in small blind (92%)
- 29 out of 33 times in other positions (87%)
- a total of 74 out of 86 (86%)
Pots won at showdown - 16 of 22 (72%)
Pots won without showdown - 18

delta: $19,650
balance: $3,861,589

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Triple high note

I've been ruminating a lot lately about how to know when to quit a session. Sometimes, it's not clear at all; at other times, it's clear as a bell. Last night, it was the latter. I had a triple high note signal. Here's what I mean:

1. I'd just won my largest pot of the night - $31,900
2. In winning this pot, I'd realized my largest hand delta of the night - $16,100
3. With this hand delta, my stack reached a new high for the session - $65,300

Of course, I was only sure about the last of these at the time, but had a strong suspicion about the other two.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 106 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 13 times while in big blind (76%)
- 4 out of 14 times while in small blind (28%)
- 43 out of 79 times in other positions (54%)
- a total of 57 out of 106 (53%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 8 (75%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $25,300
balance: $3,841,939

Friday, March 23, 2012

Quit signal

Last night, I got a strong quit signal, and heeded it. You might guess that I got it by dropping down into Lazarus territory, but you'd be wrong. The signal was that after a steady decline from the peak I reached in the middle of the session, I won a big pot to get back close to that peak. This was on hand 49; I knew it was time to go, unless I wanted to settle in for a marathon session.

There are definitely several voices which talk to you when you play poker; one of them is the voice of reason, telling you when it's time to quit. I don't always listen to that voice, but that's okay; if I did, I wouldn't have nearly as much fun!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 50 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 6 times while in big blind (100%)
- 7 out of 8 times while in small blind (87%)
- 30 out of 36 times in other positions (83%)
- a total of 43 out of 50 (86%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 10 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $16,400
balance: $3,816,639

Thursday, March 22, 2012

A wheel to remember

Last night, something recently unusual happened - I hit the felt. The good news was that I hadn't played badly - I was just card dead - and that there were a lot of good sized stacks remaining at the table. I reupped for the max and waited for my luck to change. It eventually did. The first bit of good luck was when I hit quad kings on the river to win a pot worth $28,100. The last was when I flopped a wheel, slow-played it, went all in on the river, got called, and ended up winning a pot worth $146,200. Definitely a wheel to remember!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 92 hands and saw flop:
- 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
- 8 out of 11 times while in small blind (72%)
- 40 out of 69 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 55 out of 92 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $66,000
balance: $3,800,239

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Smoothing it

Last night, I had a short and sweet session; I won 5 pots out of 17 hands. I've already forgotten what the winning hands were; what I remember best from the session is a value bet I made on the river of one of those hands, which induced a call. I remember thinking to myself as I made it, "Smooth this one". Betting too big on the river is a rough tactic, since it will usually cause opponents to fold; value betting just the right amount is a smooth move. Figuring out the right amount to smooth takes a sixth sense very similar to card sense. Right now, my card sense and my "smooth sense" are fully operational.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 17 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
- 2 out of 2 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 12 times in other positions (91%)
- a total of 16 out of 17 (94%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 5 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $48,100
balance: $3,734,239

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Brake reflexes

To be a good driver, you need to have good brake reflexes; that is, in dangerous situations, your foot needs to be pressing down on the brake pedal almost before you've even realized you're in danger. Similarly, to be a good poker player, you need to be able to bring your betting to a screeching halt when the situation warrants it. In last night's session, I flopped a flush on hand 19, bet it big on the flop, smaller on the turn, and not at all on the river. I suddenly had a bad feeling that the one player who was calling me had a better flush, and it turned out I was right. I lost a lot of chips on the hand - $16,200 to be precise - but would have lost a lot more if my brake reflexes hadn't kicked in.

I just realized this is the second time in recent memory I've had a cooler on hand 19. It's coincidence, I know, but interesting. Later in the session, I had a cluster of won pots - 6 in 8 hands. I finally quit when I'd made a profit of half my starting stack amount.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 68 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 9 times while in big blind (88%)
- 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
- 37 out of 51 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 51 out of 68 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 10 (70%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $20,500
balance: $3,686,139

Monday, March 19, 2012

The top three theory

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, three winning hands stand out. On the first one, I gained $19,800; on the second, $10,200; on the third, $9,400. After those three big gains, there's a steep drop-off; my next highest gain is a mere $2,700. Three is a very powerful number, and has inspired me to come up with my latest poker theory; I'm calling this one "the top three theory". It's simple to state, and will be simple to verify (once I get around to it :-). Here it is:

If the top three entries in the sorted list of the absolute values of your hand deltas all come from winning hands, then there's a high probability that the session itself was a winning one.

Here are the top 10 entries in the sorted list from last night's session (note that I've left the negative sign in front of the losses to make it easy to distinguish them from the wins, though the sort was based on the absolute values):

19,800
10,200
9,400
-6,400
-4,400
-4,300
2,700
2,400
-2,400
2,200

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 79 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 14 times while in big blind (85%)
- 11 out of 15 times while in small blind (73%)
- 25 out of 50 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 48 out of 79 (60%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 7 (85%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $20,700
balance: $3,665,639

update: I wrote some code to test this theory, and it held up; in the last 116 sessions I've played, 34 have the top 3 absolute value deltas from winning hands, and all 34 were winning sessions.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Bet 'em where they ain't

The title of this post appropriates some excellent advice by a Hall of Fame baseball player who was nicknamed Wee Willie Keeler. Wee Willie adjured players to "Hit 'em where they ain't". Clearly, if you hit the ball where people ain't, you'll get on base rather than making an out. Similarly, in poker, if you can manage to keep your betting patterns contra the betting patterns of your opponents, you'll have a much better chance of growing your stack. In its simplest form, to "bet 'em where they ain't" means to bet more frequently when your opponents are betting infrequently, and to bet less frequently when your opponents are betting frequently.

Last night, the opponents at the table I joined were betting frequently and heavily; I quickly decided to fold early and often. For at least the first half of the session, I was only paying to see the flop a quarter of the time. That's a very low percentage for me, but it was appropriate, given the level of aggression at the table. I was able to win the majority of hands I went to showdown with, and to cut my losses quickly on the hands I didn't back.

The only real hiccup of the night was a cooler where my queen high flush ran into an ace high uberflush; I lost $48,400 on that hand. Luckily for me, I'd already made a profit of nearly $100,000 up to that point, so it wasn't that big of a deal.

When I got my stack back up over $100,000, I called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 133 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 17 times while in big blind (52%)
- 7 out of 18 times while in small blind (38%)
- 39 out of 98 times in other positions (39%)
- a total of 55 out of 133 (41%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 13 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $60,600
balance: $3,644,939

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Surviving a cooler

Coolers are hands which you have every expectation to win, but which you improbably lose. If you play long enough, coolers will happen to you, so you need to know how to survive them. Going on tilt is a classic response to a cooler, and obviously not the correct one.

The worst possible cooler I can think of is when one player has a straight flush, and loses to another player who has a better straight flush. Thankfully, that's never happened to me. The cooler that happened to me last night, on hand 19, was mild in comparison; my full house of nines full of deuces lost to a full house of kings full of deuces. My hole cards were a pair of nines, and the winner's hole cards were a pair of kings, so both hands were stealthful. My odds of winning after the turn were 42 to 2, but my opponent hit his two outer when a king popped on the river. Luckily for me, I'd started the hand with more chips than him, so I wasn't taken to the felt; after losing $26,500 on the hand, I still had a relatively healthy $15,600 in chips. I knew it would take a long slog to get back into the black, but also knew that if I were patient enough and caught some cards, I'd be able to do it.

The hand that did it for me was a set of sevens; I won a pot worth $22,320 with them, $11,660 of which was other people's money.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 154 hands and saw flop:
- 27 out of 35 times while in big blind (77%)
- 21 out of 31 times while in small blind (67%)
- 59 out of 88 times in other positions (67%)
- a total of 107 out of 154 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 14 of 22 (63%)
Pots won without showdown - 17

delta: $9,326
balance: $3,584,339

Friday, March 16, 2012

An old flame returns

Longtime readers of this blog know there's a certain hand I have a love / hate relationship with. Not to keep new readers in suspense, it's the stealth two pair. This is when your hole cards don't match each other, but both of them match a card in the flop. Stealth two pairs have the potential to become full houses, but they also have the potential to be beaten by a large variety of hands - better two pairs, three of a kinds, straights, and flushes, to name the most common. Since the stealth two seems to lose as often as it wins, it's a dangerous hand to back, but often I can't help myself. It's the gambler in me!

Last night, on hand 18, I flopped a stealth two and went all in with it, after a player with less chips than me had already gone all in. I got one caller. My hand didn't improve to a full house, but it still held up; I won a pot worth $88,584, $62,084 of which was other people's money. This was the only pot I won all night, but it was the only one I needed to win.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 19 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 3 times while in big blind (33%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 8 out of 13 times in other positions (61%)
- a total of 11 out of 19 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $53,784
balance: $3,575,013

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Raindrops on a windshield

In my poker career, I've examined many bar charts of how my stack size changes over the course of a session. When I'm playing well, the descents are all more gradual than the ascents. When the descents are really gradual, they resemble the tracks gravity forces raindrops to make on a windshield. The ascents resemble what would happen to those same raindrops if they encountered sudden gusts of wind from below. What you want to achieve in poker is to minimize what your play contributes to the descents of your stack, and to maximize what your play contributes to the ascents.

Last night, I didn't win a single monster pot. I did, however, win a nice number of decent size pots. I called it a night when I realized I'd probably seen the best of my luck.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 23 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
- 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
- 11 out of 15 times in other positions (73%)
- a total of 17 out of 23 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $18,500
balance: $3,521,229

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

My quadfathers

The title of this post was inspired by something my father's mother used to say. If something struck her as unusual or surprising, she'd say "My godfathers!". It's certainly both unusual and surprising to get four of a kind in poker, so an apt expression for such an occurrence might be "My quadfathers!".

Last night, I followed the winning session blueprint I described in yesterday's post. I showed a lot of patience, finally got a very strong hand, went all in with it, and came out on top. My four of a kind, tens won a pot worth $55,700, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 103 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
- 3 out of 13 times while in small blind (23%)
- 36 out of 78 times in other positions (46%)
- a total of 48 out of 103 (46%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $15,600
balance: $3,502,729

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Best for last

When things are going your way, poker feels like the simplest game in the world. It seems that all you need to do is demonstrate patience, wait for a big hand, win a lot of chips with it, and then quit while you're ahead. Simple, right? That's exactly the way last night's session went down. On the penultimate hand, I flopped a set of eights, got people to put some money in the pot, then put the hammer down on the river. No one ended up calling my $5,000 bet, and I won a pot worth $17,600 - my largest pot of the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 40 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 4 times while in big blind (50%)
- 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
- 13 out of 31 times in other positions (41%)
- a total of 17 out of 40 (42%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $18,500
balance: $3,487,129

Monday, March 12, 2012

Minimum viable winning session

In the world of software development, one of the current buzz phrases is "minimum viable product". The idea is that in order to be able to launch quickly, the first version of a product should contain the smallest amount of functionality that might actually be useful. Last night, I had what I'm calling a minimum viable winning session - I won a minuscule amount of money, but at least I didn't lose any :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 98 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 14 times while in big blind (57%)
- 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
- 35 out of 70 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 51 out of 98 (52%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 15 (53%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $500
balance: $3,468,629

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Back into the blue

Last night, I got back into the blue. In other words, my balance reached a new all-time high. This is the first time I've achieved this in 2012. It took a 46 session side-trip of ups and downs to do it.

On the penultimate hand of the night, I flopped a set of sixes and slow-played them, gradually ratcheting up the pressure. I'm pretty sure I won the largest uncontested side pot of my career; when I went all in on the river, two opponents folded and I won a side pot of $71,400 with no one else showing their cards. I also won the main pot of $22,400, when one opponent who'd gone all in earlier showed a high card ace.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 50 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 9 times while in big blind (88%)
- 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
- 20 out of 31 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 34 out of 50 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $71,400
balance: $3,468,129

Saturday, March 10, 2012

You can't make this stuff up

Faithful readers of this blog know that my favorite type of hand is a flush. Moreover, they know that my favorite type of flush is a club flush. These cognoscenti know that I've had three royal flushes in my poker career, and all of them have been in clubs. What they don't know is that last night, for the first time ever, I won two hands in a row with club flushes; these hands were so good, I won them both without a showdown. You just can't make stuff like this up!

I'm now returned in triumph to the golden ratio; of 633 recorded sessions, I've lost 211 and won double that, 422.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 41 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
- 16 out of 30 times in other positions (53%)
- a total of 24 out of 41 (58%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 6 (16%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $38,400
balance: $3,396,729

Friday, March 9, 2012

In the catbird seat

Last night, I had another nice session; I doubled up again. This time, it was a flush that took my stack skyward. Not just any flush - the nut flush, since I had the ace. I was doubly lucky on this hand - not only did I flop the nut flush, but one of my opponents flopped a king high flush. He obviously thought his hand was unbeatable, and ended up going all in. I won a pot worth $80,400, and exited stage left.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
- 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
- 11 out of 18 times in other positions (61%)
- a total of 18 out of 26 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 4 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $40,600
balance: $3,358,329

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Lion-hearted kings

Friends and neighbors, it's that time again. You knew this was coming. Once again, it will be my pleasure to impart to you the secret of poker, completely free of charge. The current incarnation of the secret? You must be a lamb at times, a lion at others, and never give your opponents any hint about which one you're being at any particular time.

Last night, one of my opponents was neither a lion nor a lamb; he was a donk. In other words, he was playing much too riskily. I knew I had a good chance of taking a boatload of his chips if I just waited long enough for a strong hand. I didn't have long to wait; on hand 8, I was dealt pocket kings. In a preflop raising war with the donk, I ended up going all in. My two pair of kings and queens won a pot worth $82,200, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 9 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
- 0 out of 1 times while in small blind (0%)
- 2 out of 7 times in other positions (28%)
- a total of 2 out of 9 (22%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $42,200
balance: $3,317,729

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Club flirtations

Man, it's been a long time since I played poker! Eight days, in fact. That inspired me to see where that hiatus stacks up in the all time list; it turns out, it ties for the fifth longest since I started keeping records. It's high time I played again; I'm rarin' to go!

The most memorable feature of last Tuesday's session was that at the beginning of it, I kept getting dealt two clubs - five times in the first ten hands. That's a statistical oddity worthy of remark. Unfortunately, none of them matured into club flushes.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 66 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
- 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
- 30 out of 48 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 44 out of 66 (66%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 10 (70%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $17,700
balance: $3,275,529