Saturday, August 31, 2013

McMansion

Last night, I won my biggest pot of the night on hand 34. Three of us went to showdown, and all of us had full houses. Mine was the best of the bunch; in other words, the McMansion :-) I'd been dealt pocket kings, and the board was 9c 9d Th 9h Js. I was the last to act. One of my opponents bet $7,600 on the river, the other called, and I called with my last $7,288 to go all in. My opponents each had nines full of tens, and split the tiny side pot of $624. I raked in the main pot of $34,064. It was a tough decision for me to call; either of my opponents could have had the case nine. Their betting patterns didn't really support that, however. I guess you could say it was a semi hero call.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 132 hands and saw flop:
 - 19 out of 23 times while in big blind (82%)
 - 18 out of 23 times while in small blind (78%)
 - 49 out of 86 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 86 out of 132 (65%)
 Pots won at showdown - 11 of 20 (55%)
 Pots won without showdown - 15

delta: $7,211
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,887,711
balance: $7,244,664

Friday, August 30, 2013

A week by the lake

I'm always a little bummed when a winning streak ends. I never talk about them when they're in progress, since I don't want to jinx myself. I have no qualms about talking about them once they're over, though. Last night, my latest winning streak ended. It was nine sessions long, which means it definitely qualified as a week by the lake. I was hoping for a month by the lake, but no such luck.

I invariably look for the silver lining when a winning streak ends. Sometimes it's a stretch, but other times it's easy to find. The silver lining in last night's session was that I played a long time and didn't hit the felt. In fact, I had the highest pots won percentage I've ever had for a session at least 160 hands long. I won 48 pots in 168 hands, for a pots won percentage of 28.57.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 168 hands and saw flop:
 - 27 out of 35 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 25 out of 36 times while in small blind (69%)
 - 64 out of 97 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 116 out of 168 (69%)
 Pots won at showdown - 14 of 29 (48%)
 Pots won without showdown - 34

delta: $-11,669
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,880,500
balance: $7,237,453

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Another magic 50%

Faithful readers of this blog know that periodically I put myself on various kinds of poker diets. The most basic of these is to limit the number of hands I play in a single session. Though I claim there are healthful benefits to this diet, I'm almost never able to stick to it. Another sort of poker diet, which I have better success adhering to, is the one where I limit the percentage of times I see the flop. My goal on this diet is to see the flop no more than 50% of the time. I've found that this pays off dividends in the long run. That's one example of a magic 50% in poker. I think I've found another one. This is when you win as many pots without a showdown as you do with a showdown. In the case of the first magic 50%, you're trying to keep your seeing-the-flop percentage down to 50. In the case of the second one, you're trying to keep your pots-won-without-showdown-per-total-pots-won percentage up to 50. Last night, I won twice as many pots without a showdown as I won pots at showdown. Overall in my career to this point, I'm tantalizingly close to the magic 50% number - I've won 2,845 pots at showdown, and 2,812 pots without showdown, for a percentage of 49.7.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 39 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 16 out of 28 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 24 out of 39 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 7 (28%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $7,403
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,892,169
balance: $7,249,122

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Corrected accuracy

When I modified the utility which runs my winning session indicator to consider only sessions where I didn't hit the felt, the accuracy improved, as I'd thought it would. Of 91 sessions which the indicator flagged, only 7 were false positives, for an accuracy of 92.3%.

Last night's session was up and down; I ended it when I got the chance to take a small profit, after being underwater for 15 or so hands.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 134 hands and saw flop:
 - 19 out of 24 times while in big blind (79%)
 - 15 out of 24 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 55 out of 86 times in other positions (63%)
 - a total of 89 out of 134 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 12 of 23 (52%)
 Pots won without showdown - 21

delta: $3,870
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,884,766
balance: $7,241,719

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

How my new indicator did

Today I wrote a utility to run my new indicator on my existing poker session data. I decided that the only goal of the indicator should be to identify winning sessions, not to classify each session as either winning or losing. In other words, I consider it a worse failure of the indicator if it gives a false positive than if it fails to identify a winning session. Here are the preliminary numbers:

  471    number of no limit Hold'em sessions for which I have the full hand histories
  329    number of these sessions which were winning ones
  117    number of sessions which the indicator flagged as winning
   24    number of false positives flagged
79.49%   accuracy rate of the indicator

As I stated in yesterday's post, the indicator should only be run on sessions in which I did not hit the felt. I need to modify the utility to exclude those sessions where I did hit the felt. My guess is that once I do, the corrected accuracy rate of the indicator will be higher than 79.49%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 45 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 6 out of 6 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 20 out of 34 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 30 out of 45 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 5 (80%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $16,819
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,880,896
balance: $7,237,849

Monday, August 26, 2013

Winning session indicator

Looking back over last night's session, I came up with what I hope will turn out to be a pretty good indicator of a winning session. I'll need to run it on my historical data to verify if it's any good. For now, I'll just describe it. I'm only considering sessions where I didn't hit the felt. Here goes:

1. add 1 to the number of hands, then divide that number by 2, rounding down; call the result m
2. divide the number of won pots by 2, rounding down, then add 1; call the result n
3. determine the zero-based number of the hand where you won pot number n; call the result p
4. calculate p / m
5. if p / m >= some magic number, you had a winning session

I know the magic number has to be > 1. I'll pick a number out of a hat for a first stab at the magic number: 1.33. Running this on the data from last night's session:

1. (1 + 60) / 2 = 61 / 2 = 30.5; m = 30
2. 10 / 2 + 1 = 5 + 1 = 6; n = 6
3. p = 42
4. p / m = 1.4
5. p / m >= 1.33, so the indicator says this was a winning session

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 21 out of 44 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 33 out of 60 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $12,299
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,864,077
balance: $7,221,030

Sunday, August 25, 2013

One Hand to rule them all

In poker, as in life, what goes around comes around. Trip sixes, the holding with which I lost half my starting stack on the very first hand of Friday night's session, was the very holding with which I more than doubled my stack on the penultimate hand of last night's session. In the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, it stood head and shoulders above the rest. It was definitely the One Hand which ruled them all.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
 - 23 out of 30 times in other positions (76%)
 - a total of 38 out of 49 (77%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 8 (37%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $16,542
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,851,778
balance: $7,208,731

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Fortunate misfortune

I had both bad luck and good luck on the first hand of last night's session. That's what you might call fortunate misfortune :-) The bad luck was that an opponent, who like me had hit trip sixes on the flop, hit a full house on the river. The good luck was that he decided to value bet it, instead of going all in. I don't know if I'd have been able to let go of my trips if he'd gone all in. Instead of hitting the felt, I took a big hit ($8,200 to be precise) but was still alive and kicking. I hung in there, and was eventually able to realize a decent profit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 5 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 2 out of 4 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 11 out of 17 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 18 out of 26 (69%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 4 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $11,360
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,835,236
balance: $7,192,189

Friday, August 23, 2013

Twin towers

I never had the chance to visit the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York city when they were standing. I only know them from photographs. Nevertheless, they live on in my memory, straight, tall, and true. I know I'm not alone in that regard.

The very best way to end a cash game poker session is with twin towers. That's how I ended last night's session. In these cases, the twin towers are the last two bars on the bar chart of your stack size over the course of the session. To get them, you must win a huge pot, then quit the next hand. Last night's twin towers were courtesy of a full house, when I won a pot worth an even $20,000.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 74 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 13 times while in big blind (84%)
 - 6 out of 12 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 31 out of 49 times in other positions (63%)
 - a total of 48 out of 74 (64%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $19,106
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,823,876
balance: $7,180,829

Thursday, August 22, 2013

All your chips are belong to me

I really miss playing tournaments. How do I know this? It's easy. Every time I get into a heads up or a three handed situation in a cash game, my old tournament instincts kick in. I want to take people out, and have the confidence that I can. It's like coming home. Last night, the table eventually dwindled down to me and one other player. I said to myself, "All your chips are belong to me." (note: I'm fully aware that that sentence is grammatically incorrect; it's a snowclone). My prediction came true on just our third heads up hand. As soon as I hit eight million play dollars, I'm going to reward myself by playing tournaments again.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 130 hands and saw flop:
 - 28 out of 39 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 28 out of 38 times while in small blind (73%)
 - 30 out of 53 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 86 out of 130 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 13 of 26 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 26

delta: $27,795
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,804,770
balance: $7,161,723

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

The land of the ones

In a perfect poker world, every time you sit down to play at a nine player table, you should expect to win one of every nine hands. That's 11.111111... percent. I call this the land of the ones. Actually, since I always join a nine player table when it only has six players sitting at it, thus becoming the seventh, I should expect to win a slightly higher percentage; however, the land of the ones is close enough for government work.

Last night, I hit it right on the nose. You can make a really decent profit in the land of the ones. You can also lose your shirt, or break even. It all depends on how big the won pots were. I got a big jump start last night, when I doubled up on the very first hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 72 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 26 out of 54 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 39 out of 72 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $30,072
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,776,975
balance: $7,133,928

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Into thin air

I haven't read Jon Krakauer's 1997 nonfiction bestseller "Into Thin Air" yet, but it's on my bucket list. It has a hell of a title, and I have no qualms about using that title for this post. In poker, you're traveling into thin air when you stop winning pots. Won pots supply you with the oxygen you need to survive. Without them, you're a goner. Last night, I traveled into very thin air. Of the 142 sessions I've lost since I turned on the PokerStars feature which automatically saves the hand histories, I've only traveled into thinner air once. On November 19th, 2012, I didn't win any of the 14 hands I was dealt, for a perfectly futile 0.00 win percentage. Last night, I won just 2 of the 46 hands I was dealt, for a woeful 4.35 win percentage. I hit the felt three times; the second and third times, I ran into coolers. Since there's nothing you can do in those situations, I don't feel bad about it.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 46 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 5 out of 6 times while in small blind (83%)
 - 23 out of 35 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 31 out of 46 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 6 (16%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-60,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,746,903
balance: $7,103,856

Monday, August 19, 2013

Long gone and hard to find

Though I don't watch much baseball these days, I still remember some of the colorful phrases the broadcasters used to use. One of my favorites was "long gone and hard to find." That was how Ned Martin, a longtime announcer for the Red Sox, used to describe home runs. Like those home runs, the PokerStars $100/$200 no limit hold'em tables with a maximum starting stack of $40,000 are long gone and hard to find. All $100/$200 no limit hold'em tables now have a maximum starting stack of $20,000. I'm not sure why PokerStars got rid of the $40,000 tables, but I miss them. I never realized they were an endangered species. As Joni Mitchell sang in "Big Yellow Taxi", "Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got till it's gone". On the plus side, I'm very comfortable with the $100/$200 blind structure, so that's where I'll stay for now.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 64 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 7 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 5 out of 9 times while in small blind (55%)
 - 23 out of 48 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 32 out of 64 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 13 (53%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $33,372
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,806,903
balance: $7,163,856

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Punctuated equilibrium

I've never been shy about reusing a blog post title. If the shoe fits, wear it :-) I'm guessing this is the third time I've used this particular title. It describes the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session to a nicety. I moved from $20,000 to over $30,000 in just two hands, stayed hovering around $30,000 for the bulk of the session, then moved up to just over $50,000 on the penultimate hand. Why did the second jump take so long to happen? Since it takes energy to punctuate the equilibrium, you need a certain amount of recovery time after a puncture to build up enough energy for the next one.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 31 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 12 out of 23 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 19 out of 31 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $29,117
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,773,531
balance: $7,130,484

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Par poker

In the U.S. Open golf tournament, par is a very good score indeed. The courses are designed to make it virtually impossible to get very far into the red numbers. Golfers are forced to take their medicine almost the whole way around. What do I mean by taking their medicine? Playing it safe instead of going for too much.

In poker, maintaining your stack near its original starting amount over a significant stretch of time is difficult to do. Let's call this feat par poker, for short. In order to achieve par poker, a player needs to take his medicine nearly every hand. Just as in golf, taking your medicine in poker means playing it safe instead of going for too much.

How can a golfer win when he's focusing on par golf? How can a poker player win when he's focusing on par poker? The answer to both questions is the same. Both the golfer and the poker player win by not playing it safe some small percentage of the time, probably no more than 5%. On those occasions, they can vault ahead of their competitors.

Last night, I played par poker for 74 hands. The biggest pot I'd won to that point was worth $7,640. When I won $18,100 on hand 75, I knew that was my sign to call it a night. By playing par poker, I put myself in position for one big hand to make my session a success.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 4 out of 9 times while in small blind (44%)
 - 30 out of 57 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 42 out of 76 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 14 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $11,731
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,744,414
balance: $7,101,367

Friday, August 16, 2013

Mr. Big Stuff

Because I'm of a certain vintage, I remember certain songs. That's true of everyone. The song that comes immediately to mind as I sit down to think about last night's session is "Mr. Big Stuff." Wikipedia informs me that this song was a huge hit for Jean Knight in 1971, when I was twelve years old. Here are the opening lines:

Mr. Big Stuff
Who do you think you are
Mr. Big Stuff
You're never gonna get my love


Last night, on two separate hands, I thought I was Mr. Big Stuff. Even though I didn't have a truly premium hand in either case, I went all in. Lady Luck wagged her finger at me, tut-tutting and shaking her head. "You're never gonna get my love that way", she said. Sure enough, I lost both hands. After that, I settled down for some better poker. Even though I didn't win back all that I'd lost, I felt that I had successfully dialed back in to poker reality. That bodes well for tonight's session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 139 hands and saw flop:
 - 19 out of 21 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 17 out of 21 times while in small blind (80%)
 - 54 out of 97 times in other positions (55%)
 - a total of 90 out of 139 (64%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 19 (52%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $-24,495
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,732,683
balance: $7,089,636

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Futile perfection redux

Some nights, you know there's nothing you can do to save yourself from hitting the felt. It won't be because you're playing recklessly, and it won't be because you're making bad decisions. It will simply be because you're not getting the cards you need. This happens periodically to all players. When it happens to me, I like to see how closely the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session resembles what I call futile perfection. Futile perfection would be if you lost the exact same amount on every hand, until you had no more chips. That bar chart would be a perfectly straight downward slanting line. I came close to futile perfection once before, and came even closer last night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 71 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 4 out of 10 times while in small blind (40%)
 - 25 out of 52 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 36 out of 71 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 12 (16%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-27,917
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,757,178
balance: $7,114,131

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

The stone cold nuts

It's always good to have the nuts, but there's nothing like having the stone cold nuts. That's what I ended up having on the penultimate hand of last night's session. I was dealt Qh Ac, and the flop came Td Js Kc. Not only did I flop a straight, but it was a rainbow flop, drastically reducing my chances of being beaten by a flush. So I'd flopped the nuts, but would need to pay some attention to the turn and river cards. When the turn came 2c and the river came 8h, I knew I had the stone cold nuts. In order for a flush or a straight flush to beat me, the board needed to have three cards to a flush, which it didn't. In order for a full house or a four of a kind to beat me, the board needed to have paired, which it hadn't. In other words, I couldn't lose the hand; the worst I could do was tie with another Broadway (ace high straight). I raked in a pot worth $23,100, and called it a night the next hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 37 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 5 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 5 times while in small blind (20%)
 - 15 out of 27 times in other positions (55%)
 - a total of 21 out of 37 (56%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 3 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $18,060
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,785,095
balance: $7,142,048

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Poker session bicentennial day

There are several unusual, unofficial holidays I've found out about from the internet, over the years; here's a sampling:

- pi day: March 14th, aka 3/14, in celebration of the mathematical constant π

- Tax Freedom day: according to Wikipedia, the first day of the year in which a nation as a whole has theoretically earned enough income to fund its annual tax burden

- Programmer's day: according to Wikipedia, an international professional holiday, recognized in many technology companies and programming firms, that is celebrated on the 256th (hexadecimal 100th...) day of each year

Of the above, only pi day is guaranteed to fall on the same day every year. Tax freedom day will vary depending on the current year's tax laws, gross national income, and several other factors. Programmer's day will fall on September 13th in a non-leap year and on September 12th in a leap year.

In the spirit of such unusual holidays, I'd like to propose a new poker player-specific one; I'm calling it Poker session bicentennial day. This will be the day of the year when the poker player in question played his 200th session. I started recording my poker sessions in March of 2009, but didn't have a Poker session bicentennial day that year. I'm pleased to say that I've had one every year since then. Here are the dates they fell on:

2010   12-03
2011   10-22
2012    9-04
2013    8-12


As you can see, I celebrated this year's bicentennial last night. You may be wondering what the earliest possible bicentennial date is. I'm hear to tell you :-) In a non-leap year, it's July 19th; in a leap year, it's July 18th.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 81 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 6 out of 11 times while in small blind (54%)
 - 39 out of 61 times in other positions (63%)
 - a total of 51 out of 81 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 17 (47%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $610
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,767,035
balance: $7,123,988

Monday, August 12, 2013

Bad parabola

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of a session has taken many different shapes. Making its first appearance last night is what I call the bad parabola. That's when you start with small losses, but the losses grow bigger as the session continues. The funny thing about the bad parabola is that you feel like you're playing fine for over 90% of the session, and that may actually be true; however, the final 10% completes your descent, and you have to admit at the end that you were falling the whole time.

I actually won $21,400 on my very first hand of the night, and soon thereafter the table quit on me; it's a good thing it did, since that allowed me to consolidate that bit of profit. I hit the felt four times at the next table I joined. For the purposes of the bar chart, however, I'm just considering the first hand to be an outlier.

The last hand of the night illustrates just how cruel the poker gods can be. I was dealt Qs 9c, the flop came 9s Ks 9h, the turn was 3h, and the river was 8s. I started the hand with $9,400 and called a big river bet with my last $1,800. My trip nines lost to another trip nines who had a better kicker (an ace).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 112 hands and saw flop:
 - 16 out of 19 times while in big blind (84%)
 - 10 out of 18 times while in small blind (55%)
 - 48 out of 75 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 74 out of 112 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 24 (41%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-59,400
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,766,425
balance: $7,123,378

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Fish story

Mike McDermott: Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker. 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0128442/quotes?ref_=tt_ql_3

Mike McDermott, played by Matt Damon, is the protagonist of the excellent poker movie "Rounders". Last night, I couldn't spot the sucker in the first half hour, and was half convinced it was me. The thing was, I was playing well; I even had a small profit. Despite that, I was one of the short stacks. I made the following remark in the chat box:

I'm thinking I might be the fish at this table :-)

(note: fish is poker slang for a weak player who gets eaten by the sharks at the table.) Here's the reply I got from one of my opponents:

lol   join the club

This made me realize that sometimes, very rarely, there are no fish at the table. In such cases, it's every shark for himself :-) I ended up having a banner session, quadrupling my starting stack. I ended my night shortly after winning a pot worth $85,246 with a queen high straight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 88 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 5 out of 13 times while in small blind (38%)
 - 40 out of 66 times in other positions (60%)
 - a total of 52 out of 88 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 8 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $61,946
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,825,825
balance: $7,182,778

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Less is more

One of the annoying things about the PokerStars lobby is that the maximum buy in for a table isn't apparent until you're in the process of joining a table. If you only want to join a table with a particular max buy in, you're reduced to trial and error. Last night, after a couple of false starts, I decided to settle for a table with a $20,000 max buy in, instead of my usual $40,000. Luckily for me, it turned out to be a case of less is more :-) I ended up tripling my starting stack. I'm not sure if this result had anything to do with the change in max buy in, but I can't rule out the possibility. I don't think I played any differently, but perhaps my opponents did. Just for fun, and to gather additional information, tonight I'll specifically try to join a $20,000 max buy in table.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 39 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 0 out of 6 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 12 out of 27 times in other positions (44%)
 - a total of 17 out of 39 (43%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $40,115
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,763,879
balance: $7,120,832

Friday, August 9, 2013

The poker doldrums

Last night, I had another big loss. Once again, the difference between losing and winning hinged on a small number of hands - in this case, just two. On hand 8, I flopped a flush, but ended up losing to an uberflush; I lost $22,201 on the hand. On hand 60, my two pair of kings and sevens got outkicked; I lost $23,512 on the hand. Had I won both hands, I would have had over $25,000 in profit on the night. Woulda coulda shoulda. I'm definitely in the poker doldrums. It's not that I'm losing money hand over fist; it's just that I can't sustain any winning momentum. As soon as I go up a hundred thousand or two, I give it all back. I'll try playing a little bit tighter tonight, and see if that helps.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 168 hands and saw flop:
 - 23 out of 25 times while in big blind (92%)
 - 15 out of 28 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 70 out of 115 times in other positions (60%)
 - a total of 108 out of 168 (64%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 29 (34%)
 Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $-79,827
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,723,764
balance: $7,080,717

Thursday, August 8, 2013

The 1 in 50 theory

As we know, poker requires a lot of patience. It's only natural to ask just how much patience it requires. I've come up with a heuristic for this; I call it the 1 in 50 theory. My theory is that one of every fifty hands is special in some way, whether or not you win it. It is special because you will either win or lose an outlying number of chips on it, anywhere from 5 to 10 times the number of chips you win or lose on an average hand. To be a successful player, you need to satisfy all of the following requirements:

1. you must be patient enough to wait for that one hand in fifty to come to you
2. you must be willing to put all your chips on that hand
3. you must be lucky enough not to be outdrawn by an underdog

Clearly, you can't count on the third one :-)

Applying this theory to last night's session, since I played 151 hands, there should have been three special hands. As, indeed, there were. Was I patient enough to wait for them? Check. Was I willing to put all my chips on them? Check. Was I lucky enough not to be outdrawn by an underdog? No. Not on any of them, sad to say. If I'd won those three hands, I would've had a profit on the night. Since I lost them all, I took a big loss. However, I still consider the session a success, since I stayed true to my principles.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 151 hands and saw flop:
 - 18 out of 21 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 11 out of 22 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 61 out of 108 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 90 out of 151 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 25 (36%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $-62,218
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,803,591
balance: $7,160,544

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Doubling up through a donkey

The quickest way to double up in poker is through a donkey. It's actually a pretty safe play. The thing about donkeys is they don't seem to care if they win or lose. They're willing to go all in with extremely weak holdings. Last night, I identified a donkey early on. He went all in preflop on hand 9 with 9h Jh, and lost $41,940. He went all in three hands later with Td 7c on a flop of 6c 4c Ac, and lost $31,432. When he went all in on a flop of 3s Ts Th the very next hand, I'd seen enough. I called; of course it helped that I'd been dealt pocket rockets :-) I won a pot worth $69,240, and called it a night shortly afterwards.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 20 hands and saw flop:
 - 1 out of 4 times while in big blind (25%)
 - 1 out of 4 times while in small blind (25%)
 - 7 out of 12 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 9 out of 20 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $30,091
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,865,809
balance: $7,222,762

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

An amazing coincidence

I've now played 227 straight sessions of cash game poker. I have to admit, there are some features of tournament poker I sorely miss. Here's a partial list:

1. the adrenaline rush of playing for big sums of play money
2. how ridiculously difficult it is to make a profit, and what it says about your poker skills if you do
3. the hand-to-hand combat of playing heads up

Every now and then, I get to practice my heads up skills while at a cash game table. That's what happened at the end of last night's session; the final 21 hands I played were against a single opponent. At the start of that stretch, my opponent had $8,897 in chips; at the end, he had nothing. I was curious to see how many heads up hands I've played in cash games, so I wrote a utility to find out. When I saw the result, I couldn't believe it! How's this for an amazing coincidence - the number of times I've been heads up in cash games exactly matches the number of times I've gone all in in cash games - 459 to be precise (out of a total of 32,442 hands).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
 - 16 out of 18 times while in big blind (88%)
 - 14 out of 17 times while in small blind (82%)
 - 18 out of 25 times in other positions (72%)
 - a total of 48 out of 60 (80%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $11,710
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,835,718
balance: $7,192,671

Monday, August 5, 2013

A walk on the wild side

Whenever you go all in, you're signing yourself up for a walk on the wild side. Funny things can happen, and often do. Last night, I went all in four times. I won all four. That may sound good, but in this case it wasn't. In cash games, you want to go all in very rarely. Four times in one session is not nearly rarely enough. When you're going all in that often, it's probably because you're short-stacked. That was the case with me. Funnily enough, only one of the four all ins was truly an act of desperation. At the start of that hand, I only had $3,874 in chips. I was dealt 3s 8s, and the flop came 4s 8d 4d. I threw caution to the wind and put all my money in the middle. That was a bit foolhardy, since I'd be a big underdog if any of my opponents had a four. As it turned out, one of them did, but I wriggled off the hook. I made a full house on the river to live another day.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 148 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 15 times while in big blind (86%)
 - 10 out of 19 times while in small blind (52%)
 - 66 out of 114 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 89 out of 148 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 25 (36%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $-32,691
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,824,008
balance: $7,180,961

Sunday, August 4, 2013

7 hand span

Last night, my session was saved by a 7 hand span about 2/3 of the way through. On the first hand of the span, I won a pot worth $39,602 with an ace high flush. On the second hand, I won a pot worth $8,977 with a pair of aces. On the seventh hand, I won a pot worth $29,700 with a pair of aces. I needed the span badly, as I'd hit the felt only 28 hands into the session. I came out with another min win, but it's better than a loss. The more I play poker, the less worried I get about slumps; I know a saving span of hands is never far away.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 96 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 15 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 35 out of 67 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 53 out of 96 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 18 (27%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $475
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,856,699
balance: $7,213,652

Saturday, August 3, 2013

Jetpack blip

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, one hand immediately stands out. At the start of the hand, my stack was just over its starting amount of $40,000; at the end of the hand, it was at $58,418, its zenith for the night. That alone isn't the reason the hand stands out, however; on the very next hand, I gave back almost all the chips I'd just won. I hereby dub such a circumstance a jetpack blip. It looks like my stack got strapped to a jetpack, went straight up, hit its apogee just as the jetpack ran out of fuel, and fell straight back to earth. I obviously got too frisky on the following hand. Let me check the archives...

Ah yes, I remember now. I was dealt a suited big slick, and took exception to getting reraised before the flop. I felt like having the last word, and reraised back. I whiffed on the flop, however, and had to fold when my opponent went all in. It was a bit silly to engage in that preflop raising war. The good news is, I still came out of the session with a small profit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 120 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 18 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 10 out of 20 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 48 out of 82 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 73 out of 120 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 20 (45%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $4,348
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,856,224
balance: $7,213,177

Friday, August 2, 2013

The perfect underwater session

No poker player likes being underwater. However, being underwater is the most common state at a poker table. The vast majority of the time, you have to be patient, waiting for your turn to break through the surface. This poker reality got me thinking about underwater sessions, and what the perfect one might be. I think I've come up with an answer. For me, the perfect underwater session is one where you were underwater for every hand but two - your first and last hands of the night. By definition, you can't be underwater on your first hand. If you weren't underwater on your last hand, there's an excellent chance you had a winning session. Both of my last two sessions were perfect, underwater-wise :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 42 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 9 out of 10 times while in small blind (90%)
 - 15 out of 23 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 33 out of 42 (78%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $18,587
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,851,876
balance: $7,208,829

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Flopping fatties

One of the fascinating things about poker is that the improbable happens like clockwork. I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating. What I mean by this is that no matter how unlikely a particular event is, you can rely on it to occur with its own particular frequency. You might think that flopping a fatty is an unusual event, but I'm here to tell you that it's actually not. Even though you can only expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands, you can expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands. This sounds like a tautology, but it's not. As long as you keep playing, you can expect to keep flopping fatties every 694 hands. In other words, you will never stop flopping fatties! Is life great, or what? :-)

Since I turned on the PokerStars feature which auto saves the hand histories, I've been dealt 31,976 hands. Of those hands, I've seen the flop 19,087 times. Of those flops, I've flopped a fatty 35 times. In the last month alone, I've flopped a fatty 4 times. In the last two sessions alone, I've flopped a fatty twice. The odds of flopping a fatty are 3,744 in 2,598,960 or .1441 percent of the time. I'm currently beating the odds; right now I'm at .1834 percent.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 110 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 15 times while in big blind (53%)
 - 9 out of 16 times while in small blind (56%)
 - 43 out of 79 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 60 out of 110 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 19 (47%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $17,318
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,833,289
balance: $7,190,242