Three quarters of a million lost with aces

Last night, I had pocket aces cracked again. That makes twice in a row. This time was worse than before, since I had an 80.84% chance of winning, whereas the first time I'd had only a 25.45% chance. The sum of my losses with pocket aces has now exceeded three quarters of a million play dollars. That's going some, but is still a far cry the most I've ever lost with a specific hand. Drumroll, please! That honor goes to AKo, with which I've lost a grand total of $1,444,939.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 117 hands and saw flop:
 - 18 out of 23 times while in big blind (78%)
 - 17 out of 24 times while in small blind (70%)
 - 43 out of 70 times in other positions (61%)
 - a total of 78 out of 117 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 23 (26%)
 Pots won without showdown - 16

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,435,224
balance: $9,340,323

48 million cash game no limit hold'em play dollars lost

The title of this post speaks for itself. Since returning to cash games from tournaments on September 23, 2014, the sum of my losing hand deltas is a staggering $-4,796,509, taking my career sum of losing hand deltas to $-$48,037,138. Last night alone, the sum of my losing hand deltas was $-167,552. I hit the felt twice; the second time, I'd been dealt pocket rockets. It's never fun to have your aces cracked. It's clear I'll never make it to 3 million in profit this calendar year; I'll be happy if I can just manage to preserve the 2 million and change profit I have right now.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 66 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 7 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 3 out of 8 times while in small blind (37%)
 - 26 out of 51 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 35 out of 66 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 11 (27%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,535,224
balance: $9,440,323

Best AKo ever

Last night, on the penultimate hand of the session, I had my best AKo ever. I won a pot worth $154,248 with it, of which $103,109 was o.p.m. (other people's money). That vaulted my career AKo earnings over the one million play dollar mark. Currently at $1,075,910, AKo is now my second most lucrative hand, trailing only pocket rockets (an unchallengeable $2,287,871).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 50 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 8 times while in big blind (62%)
 - 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 13 out of 34 times in other positions (38%)
 - a total of 22 out of 50 (44%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $104,248
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,635,224
balance: $9,540,323

My blog's birthday, and his older brother

Today is my blog's birthday. I wrote my first post on November 25, 2009, exactly five years ago. At the time I started, I had no idea how long I'd keep writing. It's a little embarrassing to reflect on how proud I was the day I reached 50 posts. It seemed like a big deal at the time. This post is my 1,342nd. If I'd managed to write a post every day, as Seth Godin does, this would be my 1,827th. As it is, I'm posting at a 73% clip, which isn't too shabby. Given the subject matter of this blog, that means I'm playing poker at a 73% clip, too :-)

I haven't mentioned my blog's older brother before, at least not by that sobriquet. His name is "Leadership and Management / Turning Adversity to Advantage", and he's written by my friend Bruce Lynn. Here's the link:

https://brucelynnblog.wordpress.com/

Leadership just turned nine; like First, he's a Sagittarius too :-) Without his example, along with that of other blogs I admire, I wouldn't have had the courage to bring First into the world.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 21 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 3 out of 3 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 6 out of 15 times in other positions (40%)
 - a total of 12 out of 21 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 3 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $61,699
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,530,976
balance: $9,436,075

Twin prime hold'em hands

In mathematics, twin primes are prime numbers whose difference is two. Here are some examples: 1 and 3, 3 and 5, 5 and 7, 11 and 13, and 17 and 19. I'm going to apply a similar concept to hold'em hands. I'll define twin prime hold'em hands as hands where you've been dealt the exact same hole cards, in the exact same order, two hands apart. This is obviously an extremely rare occurrence. In the 54,330 cash game no limit hold'em hands I've played for which I have the full hand history, I've only had twin primes 23 times. The 23rd came during Friday night's session. Strangely enough, I didn't notice it at the time. The only reason I noticed it later was that I was looking at the hand where I had the largest positive delta, saw that it was jack seven suited, had a hunch that might have been the most lucrative jack seven suited of my career, ran the numbers to test my hypothesis, and looked at the results. As it turns out, it was the second most lucrative jack seven suited of my career, followed two hands later by the second most expensive jack seven suited of my career. You just can't make this shit up :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 37 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 15 out of 28 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 19 out of 37 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $45,662
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,469,277
balance: $9,374,376

Nine nine nine nine? Nein nein nein nein!

Last night, I doubled up on the very first hand. Did I quit right afterward? I think you know the answer to that question. I play largely for entertainment purposes, and there's very little entertainment in playing a single hand and then quitting. I hit the felt on hand 46 in bizarre fashion. I'd been dealt pocket kings, and raised all in preflop with them. A player acting before me had already gone all in, and a player acting after me called my raise, so three of us were going to showdown. The flop hit one of my opponent's hands the hardest I recall ever seeing a hand hit. He'd been dealt pocket nines, and flopped quads. I was drawing razor thin - I had a 0.22 percent chance of winning. The only two hands which would have done it for me were quad kings and a king high straight flush :-) The other opponent was actually drawing dead on the turn, an almost unheard of occurrence. When I saw those other two nines on the flop, I was outraged. One nine I could have stomached, but two? Come off it! I reupped for the max, went to work, and finally made it back into the black.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 191 hands and saw flop:
 - 52 out of 55 times while in big blind (94%)
 - 42 out of 57 times while in small blind (73%)
 - 45 out of 79 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 139 out of 191 (72%)
 Pots won at showdown - 27 of 56 (48%)
 Pots won without showdown - 35

delta: $12,814
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,423,615
balance: $9,328,714

Fourth worst loss with trip kings

When you're running bad, there's only so much you can do about it. My biggest loss last night came on a hand I'd normally expect to win. I was dealt king eight off, and hit trip kings on the flop. I went all in and got two callers, both of whom I had covered. One of them had king seven off, so I had him outkicked, but the other made his flush on the river. I lost $29,000 on the hand, leaving me with only $8,382. That was the fourth worst loss I've ever had with trip kings in a cash game no limit hold'em hand. About the only bright spot of the night was the fact that I somehow avoided hitting the felt :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 77 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 5 out of 10 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 30 out of 57 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 43 out of 77 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-31,962
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,410,801
balance: $9,315,900

Failure milestone

Last night, I hit the felt for the 301st time in my cash game no limit hold'em career. I've hit the felt at least once in almost a third of the cash game no limit hold'em sessions I've ever played. You could say I'm an expert at failing :-) I'm also an expert at picking myself up off the canvas and starting over.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 135 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 21 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 7 out of 20 times while in small blind (35%)
 - 41 out of 94 times in other positions (43%)
 - a total of 63 out of 135 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 13 (38%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $9,559
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,442,763
balance: $9,347,862

Down is up

Johnny Depp is one of my favorite actors. Captain Jack Sparrow is my favorite Johnny Depp character. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" is my favorite Captain Jack Sparrow movie. Johnny delivers so many great lines in it, it's an embarrassment of riches! One of my favorites is "Send this pestilent, traitorous, cow-hearted, yeasty codpiece to the brig". What does "At World's End" have to do with poker? It's simple, really. There's a great scene where Jack figures out that the way to get to World's End is to capsize his ship, The Black Pearl. He figures this out because of a cryptic phrase on the map he has to guide him. It takes him a while to figure it out; here's another great line he delivers while doing so: "Up is down. That's just maddeningly unhelpful. Why are these things never clear?". In poker, up is down and down is up. The way to make money is to lose money first. And the way to lose money is to make it first. You have to be prepared for the swings. Always! The most pronounced swing you can have from one night to the next is to be completely underwater one night and completely above water the next. That's what happened to me in my most recent two sessions. On Friday night, I was underwater the whole time, and last night, I was above water the whole time. I got curious to see if that's ever happened to me before, so I wrote a utility to find out. It's happened to me three times in all, twice before last night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 21 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 2 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 11 out of 16 times in other positions (68%)
 - a total of 15 out of 21 (71%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $52,104
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,433,204
balance: $9,338,303

Deked on the turn

My slump continues apace. I'm playing pretty abominably. On Friday night, I hit the felt twice. The first time, I got deked on the turn. An opponent who'd hit the nut flush on the turn bet small, then fired at the river. I was lulled by the small turn bet into thinking the huge river bet was a bluff. I've employed this ruse before myself, so it hurt even more to be taken in by it. The second time I hit the felt, it was at the end of a long steady decline, and I was tired of waiting for a good hand. I was dealt ace eight offsuit, went all in preflop, and whiffed on everything. My cash game no limit hold'em balance is nearing a record blue distance, which I don't need to tell you is a bad thing.

You might think I should change my playing style to try to break out of my slump, and I've been seriously considering it. However, I've come to the conclusion that if I did, I wouldn't be being true to myself. As I've said before, you need to dance with the one who brung you :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 93 hands and saw flop:
 - 12 out of 14 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 37 out of 66 times in other positions (56%)
 - a total of 56 out of 93 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 14 (35%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,381,100
balance: $9,286,199

20th hammerbye

As I've said before, I often like to quit a cash game when one of my hole cards is a deuce or a trey. By this I don't mean that I quit whenever I'm dealt a deuce or a trey; that would just be silly. What I mean is that when I'm looking for a quit signal, being dealt a deuce or a trey fits the bill. I'm generally only looking for a quit signal in one of three cases:

1. I'm trying to preserve a profit
2. I'm trying to minimize a loss
3. It's late and I want to go to bed

The best quit signal of all is being dealt a hammer (seven deuce offsuit). I hereby dub the act of quitting in this scenario a hammerbye. I'll even go so far as to give it a verb form :-) Last night, I hammerbyed right after winning my largest pot of the night. It was the 20th hammerbye of my career.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 110 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 14 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 55 out of 82 times in other positions (67%)
 - a total of 73 out of 110 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 14 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-2,079
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,481,100
balance: $9,386,199

100,000 hands

I'm nearing a significant milestone in my poker career. In roughly ten more sessions, I'll have played 100,000 hands. Actually, I've already unofficially hit this milestone, but since I didn't start recording the number of hands played per session right away, I haven't officially hit it yet. Assuming each hand takes about a minute and a half to play, those 100,000 hands are the equivalent of playing poker 24 hours a day for 104 straight days. No wonder I feel like an expert :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 74 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 28 out of 55 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 40 out of 74 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 14 (35%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $33,182
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,483,179
balance: $9,388,278

A ballet of three

Last night, using live streaming, I watched the final broadcast of the 2014 WSOP main event. Instead of the expected heads up match, however, there were three players left over from the night before. This made for a lot more drama, in my opinion. I think the WSOP should consider doing this on purpose in the future, ending the penultimate broadcast as soon as the fourth place finisher busts.

It was riveting to watch the three players exchanging blows, and observe the unique dynamic that occurs at three handed tables. In any one hand, generally at most two of the players will make a stab at the pot. It's just too dangerous for all three of them to stay in the hand. That means there are three distinct matchups - Player A versus Player B, Player A versus Player C, and Player B versus Player C. The way the hands unfold is quite artistic; it's like a ballet of three!

There's something very intimate about the confrontations; the players watch each other so very closely. They can't help but end up having the utmost respect for each other. In a way it's a shame there can only be one champion.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 62 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 7 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 2 out of 7 times while in small blind (28%)
 - 26 out of 48 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 32 out of 62 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $2,603
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,449,997
balance: $9,355,096

Final table fandom

Last night, I watched roughly five hours of play, via live streaming, from the final table of the WSOP main event. I played poker on PokerStars at the same time :-) It was heartbreaking to see Mark Newhouse bust in ninth place for the second year in a row. As several commentators mentioned, he showed a ton of heart.

My slump continued, but at least I didn't hit the felt multiple times. It's a minor victory these days to hit it only once a session :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 164 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 20 times while in big blind (65%)
 - 15 out of 19 times while in small blind (78%)
 - 65 out of 125 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 93 out of 164 (56%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 19 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-29,105
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,447,394
balance: $9,352,493

Don't Look Now

Yet again, I'm using the title of a work of fiction for the title of a blog post. In this case, it's a short story by Daphne du Maurier. On Friday, I hit the felt three times. It served me right, actually; in that night's blog post, I crowed that I might be over my slump. "Don't look now" is good poker advice; basically what it means in a poker context is don't fret about the size of your stack. Doing so is a recipe for disaster, since it often causes you to make bad decisions.

Even though I had a horrendous October, losing $331,144, and November has started badly, I'm still having a great year. So far I've won $2,226,333. I'm going to try to reach $3,000,000 by December 31st.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 109 hands and saw flop:
 - 12 out of 15 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 6 out of 14 times while in small blind (42%)
 - 46 out of 80 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 64 out of 109 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 19 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-150,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,476,499
balance: $9,381,598

Top 10 total wagered amount

I always like it when a session makes it into the top 10 in one category or another. That happened last night, in the category of total wagered amount. Here are the top 10:

$1,050,062 2013-06-11
  $705,747 2013-06-12
  $675,772 2014-02-04
  $567,534 2014-06-18
  $559,974 2014-01-27
  $550,107 2014-07-02
  $537,929 2014-06-13
  $496,742 2014-05-13
  $495,904 2014-10-29
  $485,172 2014-11-06

Last night's session was unusual in another way - even though my largest absolute value delta came from a losing hand, I still managed to make a really decent profit. Don't look now, but I think the slump is over :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 8 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 24 out of 44 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 37 out of 60 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 9 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $75,394
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,626,499
balance: $9,531,598

41st dolphin leap

There's something immensely satisfying about being underwater all session long and then finally getting above water at the very end. I call that a dolphin leap. Last night, I achieved my 41st dolphin leap in 769 sessions of cash game no limit hold'em. The hand which vaulted me into profitability was trip sixes. An opponent with a busted gutshot tried to buy the pot on the river, but I was having none of it :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 99 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 13 times while in big blind (84%)
 - 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 39 out of 73 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 57 out of 99 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 20 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $37,900
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,551,105
balance: $9,456,204

Poker interruptus

Lately, I've been having issues with my internet connectivity at night. Sometimes it slows way down, and sometimes it even stops working completely. That's a horrible feeling, especially when I'm playing poker. Last night, it happened without warning, giving me a bad case of poker interruptus. Since I was in the black at the time, considering the way I've been playing lately, maybe it was a blessing in disguise :-) Be that as it may, I fervently hope it doesn't happen again.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 53 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 5 out of 7 times while in small blind (71%)
 - 26 out of 39 times in other positions (66%)
 - a total of 36 out of 53 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 10 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $20,735
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,513,205
balance: $9,418,304

Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said

Once again, I'm using the title of a novel I've never read as the title of a blog post. As before, it's written by an author I greatly admire (Philip K. Dick in this instance), whose work I've read widely. That title was what sprung to mind when I looked at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session. All the blue bars hanging below the zero line are like the tracks of so many tears. As you might have guessed, the session ended with another crash to the felt. I've now hit the felt six times in the last six sessions, only two shy of my all-time six session record. I set a new all-time record for a 17 session cash game no limit hold'em stretch, losing more money in such a stretch than ever before - a whopping $464,644. I'm really kind of curious to see just how bad this slump might get :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 11 out of 14 times while in small blind (78%)
 - 36 out of 70 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 56 out of 97 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 15 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,492,470
balance: $9,397,569

Did it float?

I used to watch my fair share of "Late Night with David Letterman", but that was before I started playing online poker :-) One of the recurring segments which I found amusing was the one called "Will it float?". There was a small backyard-style pool on the set, and every time the segment came up, a different object had been chosen to drop into it. Before that happened, though, Dave had to predict whether or not the object would float. It was clear that some objects would sink like a stone. A surprising percentage of the time, however, objects which seemed like they should sink actually floated.

A poker player often asks himself this same question. "Will it float?", in a poker context, translates to "Is this play which I'm contemplating making profitable in the long run?" For certain plays, there's no way to find out. That can be the case when the decision you're about to make is not guaranteed to be your final decision of the hand. However, in the case where you're faced with an all in decision, that guarantees it will be your final decision of the hand, and you can retroactively find out the answer to the "Will it float?" question. Due to the retroactive nature of the answer, a more accurate way to phrase the question is "Did it float?" :-)

On Friday night, I hit the felt on hand 122. I was dealt a pair of jacks, and ended up going all in preflop with them. Three other players went to showdown. Even though I lost the hand, did my decision to go all in "float"? It sure did! I had a 33% chance of winning the hand, spent $25,950 on it, and would have won a total of $103,100 if I'd won the hand. Running the numbers 100 times, with 33 wins and 67 losses, the result is a profit of $807,300. That eases the pain of hitting the felt considerably.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 122 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 17 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 8 out of 20 times while in small blind (40%)
 - 61 out of 85 times in other positions (71%)
 - a total of 82 out of 122 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 12 of 17 (70%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,542,470
balance: $9,447,569