Under the lights (for a millisecond)

Last night, for the fourth time in my career, I was the first player to hit the rail at the final table of an MTT-R NLHE. I made it under the lights, but was only able to last a single hand once I got there. There were 3 excellent reasons for that:

1. I was the short stack
2. I was in the big blind, and that (in combination with the ante) put me all in
3. I was dealt a hammer (7 deuce offset, the worst starting hand in poker)

Three strikes and you're out.

I was proud to have gotten under the lights by laddering up as the short stack. Amusingly, I inadvertently ensured that my profit would be $50,000 more than it otherwise would have been, by forgetting to add on. I should forget that more often :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   104      71   15     9   472000

delta: $272,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,778,500
2017 balance: $19,732,650
balance: $31,150,480

Third largest session loss ever

The title of this post says it all. When you've played 2,255 sessions, as I now have, your third largest session loss ever is a pretty big deal. Here are the top 10:

$-1,030,500   2015-08-24
$-1,024,500   2012-07-21
  $-766,600   2017-08-29
  $-650,000   2017-07-03
  $-650,000   2017-06-23
  $-600,000   2015-06-16
  $-600,000   2015-06-12
  $-551,000   2017-07-13
  $-530,750   2017-08-02
  $-527,000   2017-08-08

Last night's loss bumps my blue distance up to $1,240,625. For comparison purposes, the highest my blue distance has been this year is $2,144,325.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9    49     179   36    25    33400
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      76   18    48        0
MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9    13     135   27   102        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      60   12    30        0

delta: $-766,600
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,506,500
2017 balance: $19,460,650
balance: $30,878,480

Patience in tandem

Since I started playing MTT-R NLHEs, I've almost never multi-tabled. Last night I did, due to a fingerfehler. In trying to register for an MTT-R NLHE, by mistake I registered for the MTT-B (MTT with bounties) NLHE which was directly above it in the selection list. I then registered for the original tournament I'd wanted, and played those two tournaments simultaneously. I'd forgotten how fun MTT-B NLHEs are to play! I'll probably play another one tonight. I'd also forgotten how beneficial to my play it is to multi-table; I don't have as much time to make decisions, and in that situation, I tend to make better ones :-) Also, it's much easier to be patient when you're multi-tabling; for two-tabling, I call that "patience in tandem".

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    25      85   18    41        0
MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9    40     184   45    23    30300
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   142      59   12     8   467000

delta: $58,300
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,206,500
2017 balance: $20,227,250
balance: $31,645,080

Peaking too early

Whenever I become the chip leader in a tournament, which is very seldom, I take a poker selfie to commemorate the moment. I'd rather never be the chip leader, however, if that meant I'd have a deeper run. Last night, in the only tournament I entered, I became the chip leader at the end of hand 52. I lasted another 67 hands, finishing in 14th. A classic case of peaking too early :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   119      81   18    14   460000

delta: $360,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,139,500
2017 balance: $20,168,950
balance: $31,586,780

Another 50 50 result

On Friday night, I had another 50 50 result - I played two tournaments, and made the money in one of them. If I were able to do this for another 19 straight sessions, I'd finally reach the lofty .400 plateau again. That's a lot to ask, and underscores just how difficult this plateau is to reach. It's definitely something to strive for.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      83   18    22        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      63   15    15   300000

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,779,500
2017 balance: $19,808,950
balance: $31,226,780

A pair of fours

On Wednesday night, I scored a pair of fours. It wasn't a hand; rather, it was two fourth place finishes. The first fourth wasn't very exciting, since it came in an 18 player SNG NLHE; the second one was very exciting, however, since it came in a 69 player MTT-R NLHE. That one put a lot of color in my cheeks (a favorite locution of my father's, by the way :-))

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winning

SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    79      18    4     4    30600
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   145      69   15     4  1545000

delta: $1,305,600
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,129,500
2017 balance: $20,158,950
balance: $31,576,780

Slick, or not so slick?

When you're on the bubble, it can really pay not to play. Folding your way into the money is a legitimate strategy. It's not playing to win, certainly, but it's better than not cashing. Last night, in the first tournament I entered, I made it to the bubble. When I was dealt a big slick (ace king), I had a decision to make. Did I want to cash, or did I want to have a chance to win? I chose the latter, and ended up hitting the rail. I don't feel bad about making that choice, though; the real profit in MTT-Rs comes from getting to the final table, and it's hard to get there by folding premium hands.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      66   15    16        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    86      73   15    10   353000

delta: $53,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,834,500
2017 balance: $18,853,350
balance: $30,271,180

Negligible ROI

Since I never found a suitable way to calculate cash game ROI, from now on I'm going to refer to non-cash ROI simply as ROI. Last night, I had a truly negligible ROI - 2% on the nose. It would have been negative had I not come in first in the 18 player SNG NLHE I played. I'll likely never play a 6 player SNG NLHE again, but I'm really liking the 18 player version.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    92      18    4     1   122400
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      58   12    35        0

delta: $2,400
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,781,500
2017 balance: $18,800,350
balance: $30,218,180

IG;WS twice

One of the nice things about having written a blog for over eight years is that there are a lot of posts to crib from :-) Here's an excerpt from what I had to say in my "IG;WS" post of January 13, 2015:

The title of this post is a snowclone instance. The snowclone template it uses is XX;YY. The canonical instance which uses this template is TL;DR. TL;DR is shorthand for "Too Long; Didn't Read". IG;WS is my shorthand for "In Good; Went South", which in turn is short for "I got my money in good, but the hand went south on me" :-)

Last night, I hit the rail in both tournaments I played on IG;WS hands. In the first one, I was an 88.64% favorite to win the pot; in the second, I was a 65.91% favorite. Luckily for me, I finished deep enough in the first tournament to come out with a nice profit on the night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   103      79   18     7   591000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      57   12    35        0

delta: $241,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,881,500
2017 balance: $18,797,950
balance: $30,215,780

Career worst ten bagger

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: the longer you've played, the more impressive it is to have a new career best or worst. Last night, I achieved my career worst ten bagger, and it wasn't even close. Here are the top ten:

$-2,144,325 2017-08-07 2017-08-18 (3)
$-1,538,125 2017-08-06 2017-08-17 (4)
$-1,412,568 2015-06-12 2015-06-21 (4)
$-1,368,370 2015-08-18 2015-08-27 (1)
$-1,354,905 2015-08-19 2015-08-28 (1)
$-1,352,321 2015-08-17 2015-08-26 (2)
$-1,309,248 2015-08-20 2015-08-29 (2)
$-1,299,100 2015-08-15 2015-08-24 (3)
$-1,293,033 2015-08-16 2015-08-25 (3)
$-1,280,460 2015-06-11 2015-06-20 (4)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    58      18    4     5        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    70      61   15    22        0

delta: $-470,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,640,500
2017 balance: $18,556,950
balance: $29,974,780

Kamikaze players

One of the drawbacks of playing MTT-R NLHEs is that they attract a fair number of players who use kamikaze tactics. These players go all in on practically every hand, thinking nothing of rebuying over and over and over again, every time they hit the felt. That's not a sustainable business model. These players make it hard on skilled players, since they essentially remove the skill element from the game. Post flop play is where skilled players shine, but when there are kamikaze players at the table, there are very few post flop decisions to make, since all their money generally goes in before the flop. I'm getting sick of this type of player. Thankfully, such tactics aren't often seen in sit and gos, so I can get a respite by playing them. I availed myself of this solace in the final tournament I played last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    30      66   15    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      49   12    25        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9   111      45    7     2   164475

delta: $-305,525
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,090,500
2017 balance: $19,026,950
balance: $30,444,780

Stopping the bitch

Last night, I stopped the bitch. My losing streak, that is. I did it the hard way - by getting in a big hole, then pulling out a first in a sit and go to climb out of it. I eked out a minuscule profit, but a profit nevertheless. We'll see if this can jump start me into a winning streak.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      56   12    23        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       9    27      18    4    10        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       9    79      18    4     1   306000

delta: $6,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,540,500
2017 balance: $19,332,475
balance: $30,750,305

Truly slumptious

It's official; what had been a mini slump is now a full-blown slump. On the strength (?) of last night's session, my last 3 sessions comprise the third worst three bagger of my career. Here are the top 10 worst:

  -1105000 2017-06-30 2017-07-03 (0)
  -1082750 2015-08-22 2015-08-24 (1)
  -1050000 2017-08-13 2017-08-15 (0)
  -1048812 2015-08-24 2015-08-26 (0)
  -1048007 2012-07-21 2012-07-23 (1)
   -990000 2015-08-23 2015-08-25 (1)
   -949000 2017-06-21 2017-06-23 (0)
   -855000 2017-06-29 2017-07-01 (0)
   -850000 2017-07-01 2017-07-04 (0)
   -827000 2012-07-19 2012-07-21 (1)

My theory is, if you can't lose a million in 3 sessions, you're not trying hard enough :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      55   12    18        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    34       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    85000 15000       6    48       6    2     4        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,740,500
2017 balance: $19,326,475
balance: $30,744,305

No place

I'm in a mini slump right now; I hope it stays mini :-) Last night, after failing to make the money in two MTT-R NLHEs, and not wanting to wait for the next one to start, I jumped into an MTT NLHE. I hit the rail so fast I jumped right into another one. In each, I failed to outlast the late registration period, so I failed to achieve an official place. I was no place, in other words :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      86   18    49        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      84   18    57        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9     5      78   18     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37      57   15     -        0

delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,840,500
2017 balance: $19,576,475
balance: $30,994,305

34 million wagered

Last night, I topped 34 million wagered for 2017. That's already my second highest yearly wagered amount, but the year isn't over yet. There's little doubt that by the end of 2017, I'll surpass my current highest yearly wagered amount, which is 2016's $41,971,200.

Just for fun, I looked up my career wagered amount; it's currently $137,002,280.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      74   15    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      66   15    38        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,190,500
2017 balance: $20,026,475
balance: $31,444,305

Recent trend

Looking at my recent MTT-R NLHE results, I noticed that I've gravitated to making the money every other tournament. Not too shabby! If I can keep this pace up, I'll hit the magic .400 number in 10 more tournaments.

I've found that for me, the most satisfying way to make the money is to be the short stack, and somehow keep laddering up until finally I get there :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      80   18    49        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    88      83   18    16   429000

delta: $179,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,540,500
2017 balance: $20,376,475
balance: $31,794,305

No more than 3 bullets

I just took another look at my MTT-R NLHE data, and it inspired me to make a new resolution - never to fire more than 3 bullets in any single tournament. Three is all you should ever need, if you're playing well; one buy in, one rebuy, and one add on. When you're playing really well, two is all you'll need - one buy in and one rebuy. Last night, I fired just three bullets, and made the money. I might have been able to ladder up a bit at the end, but I kept nodding off and getting timed out :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    80      77   18    13   332000 

delta: $182,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,361,500
2017 balance: $20,197,475
balance: $31,615,305

16 bullet night

The two most memorable things about Tuesday night's session:

1. I had a 1 hand SNG NLHE
2. I fired 16 bullets over the course of two MTT-R NLHEs

Here are the two resolutions I've made:

1. to wean myself off my recent craving for SNGs
2. never to fire more than 7 bullets in any given MTT-R NLHE

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9     1      45    7    44        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    93      81   18    17   363000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     7     117   30    53        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    29      45    7    24        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      44    9    28        0

delta: $-527,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,179,500
2017 balance: $20,015,475
balance: $31,433,305

Poker's dirty little secret

I've talked about poker's dirty little secret before, but it bears repeating. Here it is: to succeed in poker, you need to play against players who aren't as good as you. Succeeding at poker doesn't mean you're all that good, it just means that there are a bunch of players out there who are worse than you, and you've managed to find them :-) The most reliable way to find players who are worse than you is to try a whole lot of different poker styles and flavors. Once you find your best poker style and flavor combination, use it as your bread and butter (i.e., make it the one you play the most).

One of the strangest things I've discovered about poker is how many good players choose to play for small stakes, even in play money games. It's hard to win at small stakes, and even if you do, the reward is hardly worth the effort. Instead of banging your head against the wall, the solution is to move up in stakes, where you'll find both more bad players and bigger rewards :-)

A close corollary of favoring higher stakes over lower is to favor tournaments with larger fields over smaller. The larger the field, the more bad players you'll get the chance to play against.

Here endeth today's sermon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      60   12    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      50   12    15        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    95      18    4     3    61200

delta: $-158,800
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,616,500
2017 balance: $20,542,475
balance: $31,960,305

Blue after blue

I've always taken an interest in the times when I've managed to bring a particular balance back into the blue - i.e., to a new all-time high. I've looked at blue counts, and I've looked at blue percentages. One thing I never thought to look at before yielded an intriguing anomaly. I decided to look at how well I do in sessions immediately following a session where I got a balance back into the blue. The results surprised me; I thought I'd do no better or worse than my average winning percentage for that balance. However, it turns out I do better in sessions following blue ones than I do in sessions which don't follow blue ones. Blue after blue seems to be a real thing :-) Here are my numbers for MTT-R NLHEs:

winning percentage: 56.75
blue after blue percentage: 62.96

One possible explanation is the confidence you get when a balance goes into the blue; nothing is weighing on your mind, and nothing is holding you back. Psychologically speaking, that can only help your game.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      82   18    56        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    77      18    4     3    61200
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   114      68   15    11   395000

delta: $136,200
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,816,500
2017 balance: $20,701,275
balance: $32,119,105

Aces out

Last night, I experienced another aces out. This time, I was turned instead of rivered. I ran the numbers, and this is the third time I've had aces out in an MTT-R NLHE. It's not a fun way to exit, but it's certainly an honorable one. I was an 80.68% favorite before the flop, and an 86.77% favorite after the flop. A disastrous turn card made me a 4.55% dog, and I missed the two outer on the river. The good news is, I still made a profit (albeit a small) one on the night, and am still in the blue.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      74   15    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      71   15    15   294000

delta: $94,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,721,500
2017 balance: $20,565,075
balance: $31,982,905

20 million dollar year

Last night, I got under the lights again in an MTT-R NLHE. That pushed my 2017 balance above the 20 million play dollar mark. I feel like I can do no wrong at the poker table, which is a dangerous feeling to have; it often presages a sharp downswing. I ain't afeared none, though :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   127      78   18     5  1205000
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    26      45    7    21        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    27      18    4    10        0

delta: $1,065,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $19,627,500
2017 balance: $20,471,075
balance: $31,888,905

That SJGR moment

It turns out to be a much bigger deal to make the money in an MTT-R than to do so in a regular old MTT. The reason is simple - every rung on the pay table provides a much better ROI, including the bottom ones. It's a wonderful feeling when you're headed for the money in an MTT-R, since you know that if you make it, not only will you have the chance to make a really obscene amount of profit, but you'll still make a nice profit even if you only min cash.

As I've mentioned before, there are times when I just know I'm going to make the money. When it's an MTT-R, such a time is an SJGR (shit just got real) moment :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    30      76   18    57        0
SNG   NLHE     8500  1500       2    46       2    1     2        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      76   18    30        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    64       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    31       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    29       6    2     5        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   124      53   12     4  1119000

delta: $459,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,522,500
2017 balance: $19,406,075
balance: $30,823,905

Never say never again

I stole the title of this post from the title of a 1983 James Bond movie, which was probably a tongue-in-cheek reference to the fact that Sean Connery was playing Bond one more time, after he'd sworn he never would :-) What I'm never saying never again about is playing sit and gos; they're much too fun not to play every now and then. With this year's massive profit, I can afford to blow some of it on sit and gos when I feel the itch.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   8-Game  17000  3000       6   142       6    2     3        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    66      85   18    22        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      61   15    26        0
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    55       6    2     2    89250
SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    29       6    2     5        0

delta: $-530,750
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,903,500
2017 balance: $18,947,075
balance: $30,364,905

New stretch goal

So far, my results this year have exceeded my wildest expectations. With all this success, I have a hankering for a new stretch goal. I decided it would be a nice change of pace not to make it strictly profit-based. Accordingly, my new stretch goal will be to make the money in 10 straight MTT-R NLHEs. My best streak in MTT NLHEs is 13 straight; that record is destined to stand, since it was achieved in massives, and massives are no more. With last night's result, I've spotted myself 3 straight MTT-R NLHEs towards the new stretch goal.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   103      62   15    12   354000

delta: $54,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,403,500
2017 balance: $19,477,825
balance: $30,895,655

10 million dollar month

July 2017, which has now ended, was my best poker month ever. I won more than 10 million play dollars during the month. This was due in no small part to last night's session, where I came in first. Thinking about my extrapolated profit, I realized I've been calculating it wrong. The bulk of my profit this year has come from MTT-R NLHEs, which I didn't start playing until May 12th. Since I intend to play only MTT-R NLHEs for the rest of the year, I should extrapolate just my MTT-R NLHE profit, basing it on the May 12th starting date, then add in the profit I made in other styles and flavors prior to that. Drumroll, please ...

My extrapolated profit for the year is currently 35.3 million play dollars. If I achieve that, my overall balance will reach 46.7 million.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   134      71   15     1  4148500 

delta: $4,048,500
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,349,500
2017 balance: $19,423,825
balance: $30,841,655